Who might be a fit in a swap?
While we have a few days off, I figured we could look around the league and see who might be possible trade candidates as the D-backs head towards the trade deadline. As we have previously discussed, there are four main chips on Arizona’s side of the table: first baseman Josh Naylor, third baseman Eugenio Suarez, plus starting pitchers Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly. This, obviously, goes on the basis that the team will be selling, but all the indications are that this is the case.
As a general rule of thumb, we’re going to focus on teams which are already above .500, but have a weakness at the position in question. I’m not particularly going to focus on specifics of trades, because trying to analyze another team’s farm system is basically above my pay-grade. Hell, analyzing our own farm system is something I am generally happy to leave to those better informed than I, such as Preston, James and Michael. But I tend to the view that if a team really wants one of these players, then an adequate trade can be worked out. Even if we get players at a position we don’t need, we can turn around and flip these to somebody else.
The candidates
To find the teams who need help, we’re going off bWAR Above Avg By Position. Below are the teams who currently both have a winning record, and are below average at first-base. Below are their records, production at first base, and playoff odds from Fangraphs.
- Houston Astros: 56-40, -2.2 bWAA, 93.6%
- Cincinnati Reds: 50-47. -1.9 bWAA, 10.8%
- San Francisco Giants: 52-45, -1.6 bWAA, 45.0%
- Boston Red Sox: 53-45, -1.3 bWAA, 55.7%
- Seattle Mariners: 51-45, -1.2 bWAA, 48.5%
- San Diego Padres: 52-44, -1.0 bWAA, 48.3%
It is worth noting that the D-backs have not exactly been great at first-base this year. They actually come in fractionally below average themselves, sitting at -0.2 bWAA. However, it would still be an upgrade for any of the teams listed above. Naylor’s value has been almost entirely with the bat (1.6 oWAR), rather than his glove (-1.1 dWAR). That should not come as a surprise, since he has been in negative territory for dWAR every year in the majors. First-basemen gonna first-base, I guess. Arizona’s total value, it’s worth remembering, is a composite of all the players we’ve used there, which is mostly Naylor (288 PA), with a side-order of Pavin Smith (107 PA), plus a garnish of Tim Tawa and Tristin English.
The irony of the Astros being top of the list shouldn’t be wasted on anyone, since their everyday first-baseman is someone with whom we’re very familiar. It’s Christian Walker, who signed a three-year, $60 million contract with them in December. He has been legitimately terrible: below replacement at the plate (83 OPS+) and worse than Naylor defensively (-1.2 dWAR). It’s difficult to see Walker moving anywhere. Houston’s regular DH has been even worse (OPS 81), so Naylor would initially seem a possibility there, negating any defensive issues The problem is, Yordan Alvarez is owed even more than Walker – over $80 million from 2026-28. I suspect the Astros will keep plugging away with those two.
The Reds might be a better fit. Their main player at first is Spencer Steer, who is currently earning league minimum. and at 0.2 bWAR so far, isn’t playing much better than that. He took over from Opening Day starter Christian Encarnacion-Strand, who missed seven weeks with a back injury, and didn’t hit on his return – he was recently optioned to Triple-A. Naylor’s OPS+ this season of 127 would be a clear upgrade over Steer’s 93, and it’s worth noting that Naylor was apparently seen as a possible option in Cincinnati last winter, before the Guardians traded him to the Diamondbacks. The shortcomings of Steer and Encarnacion-Strand might make the Reds circle back to Naylor once more.
It might seem odd to think about the Giants, given the rule about not trading within your division. But should the D-backs care? Their season is over, and it’s not as if sending Naylor to San Francisco can come back to bite them down the road. Any qualms might be more from the Giants’ side. Currently, they’re going with a platoon of Dominic Smith and former D-back Wilmer Flores. As a leftie, Naylor would take over from Smith and his .682 OPS. One suggestion has them sending top prospect Bryce Eldridge to the Diamondbacks. Frankly, considering Eldridge is viewed as the #19 prospect in all baseball, that seems a horrendous overpay for a rental. But I’d not hang up the phone if San Francisco made such an offer.
The Red Sox are suddenly back in the frame, winning their last ten games going into the break, rocketing from two below .500 to eight over. Their problems at first started with Triston Casas’s season-ending knee injury. Then Rafael Devers refused to play the position, factoring into his trade, after telling the front office, “they should do their jobs”, and find a replacement. Boston has been starting utility guy Abraham Toro there, very much a stop-gap solution. They’ll want to improve, and another former D-back, Josh Bell has been suggested as a possibility. He’d be roughly half the salary of Naylor but because the Giants took on all Devers’ salary, financial considerations are less an issue for the Red Sox.
Here won’t be the last time the Mariners will come up in this series. Seattle is looking to improve at both corner infield spots, and last week ESPN’s Jeff Passan said Josh was their best trade option. “Naylor is a high-average, low-strikeout slugger whose quality at-bats would help transform a solid Seattle lineup into something more.” They’re certainly familiar with the player: Naylor hit the first walk-off grand-slam in D-backs history against them last month. Seattle’s Opening Day starter at 1B was Rowdy Tellez, but he was DFA’d on June 20. They have been going with Luke Raley and Mitch Carver since. The former has been okay (OPS+ 108), and is a LHB like Naylor, so Seattle may decide to focus their efforts elsewhere.
Finally, the Padres, who may be regretting the decision to trade for now three-time batting champ Luis Arraez. He won the NL crown last year despite being worth just 1.0 bWAR, and with an average 44 points below his career BA coming into 2025, his value has all but evaporated. At least they’re out from under Arraez next winter, and his cost of $14 million is merely bad, rather than disastrous. But a LHB is something San Diego could use: their OPS is 23rd vs RHP. For Naylor to go there, they would need to shuffle their infield – Arraez has most experience at 2B. It would be a reunion, since Naylor was dealt to the Padres in 2016 as part of a deal with the Marlins, going on to the Guardians in a 2020 trade.
Conclusion
Interestingly, a couple of weeks ago, Jim Bowden of The Athletic listed Naylor the position player most likely to be moved, after surveying 40+ baseball executives. He gave the #2-5 teams above as possible landing spots, as well as the Rangers. Though Texas are in the same boat as Arizona: incapable of staying above .500, and they haven’t been there since mid-May. Otherwise, I’d not be surprised to see the Reds or the Red Sox as trade partners, with the Mariners potentially also in the frame. Although obviously, the final decision will likely come down less to who needs him most, than who offers Mike Hazen the best return for the infielder.