Two pitchers for the price of.. well, two, to be honest.
It would be interesting to be a fly on the wall of Mike Hazen’s office this month, and gauge the interest in starting pitchers Merrill Kelly and Zac Gallen, Both are sure to be in demand, but I’d be fascinated to learn who other teams are inquiring about first. There’s no doubt that Kelly has been the better pitcher this year. His ERA is more than two runs lower than Gallen’s (3.34 vs. 5.40) and the gap by FIP is significant as well (3.47 vs. 4.80). But Gallen still potentially has the higher ceiling: when he’s right, he can rip off starts for a month or longer, where he is almost untouchable. His recent struggles might make him a good “buy-low” candidate, especially if you think your pitching coach can fix what ails Zac.
However, for the purposes of this article, we’re not going to distinguish between the two starting pitchers. We’re more interested in the teams who need help in their rotation, for whom Kelly and Gallen might be upgrades. Kelly is probably of more appeal, because he’s the more “sure thing”. His ERA over the past four seasons has been 3.42, and with the exception of the injury-plagued 2024, his ERA each year has been no more than thirteen points away from that. Health permitting, you know what you’re going to get from Merrill, and he would certainly help just about anyone in need. Gallen is more of a wild-card, and buying out the remainder of the year would also cost more.
The candidates
Regardless, here are the teams whose rotations have been most in need of help this year. As before, we list their current record, production from their starting pitchers (measured by bWAR above average), and their playoff odds according to Fangraphs.
- Seattle Mariners, 51-45, -2.2 bWAA, 71.7%
- Los Angeles Dodgers, 58-39, -2.0 bWAA, 99.4%
- Boston Red Sox, 53-45, -1.8 bWAA, 56.7%
- St. Louis Cardinals, 51-46. -1.7 bWAA, 28.4%
- Chicago Cubs, 57-39, -1.7 bWAA, 93.3%
- Toronto Blue Jays, 55-41. -0.4 bWAA, 83.4%
Some surprising names on the list, but also some surprising omissions. The Yankees and Mets have simply not been nearly bad enough to make the list. They are both top seven in starter ERA to date, and in the top half by bWAA, though current injuries are an issue, e.g. the Yankees losing Clarke Schmidt. That is what led their GM Brian Cashman to say earlier this month that he is “definitely” looking to add another starter: “We’re going to be fully engaged and see where it takes us.” So, the above list should certainly not be taken as exhaustive in terms of potential trade partners, because Kelly would upgrade almost any rotation. But let’s look at the team in most need of help.
I was surprised to see the Mariners top this list, because their starters this year have an ERA of 3.98, eleven points better than MLB average. However, that does seem front-loaded. Luis Castillo, Logan Gilbert and Bryan Woo, have totaled 4.6 bWAR: everyone else combined on their pitching staff has been below replacement level. Taking Emerson Hancock and Bryce Miller (five wins over 25 starts, at a 5.57 ERA) out of the rotation has certainly helped, but they could use an innings eater to slot in at the back. Despite his struggles, Gallen has still averaged 5.8 innings per start, better than the league average of 5.2, so if they go for anyone, it would likely be Zac.
Who saw the Dodgers’ rotational struggles coming? Well, Jack did: “The pitchers they’ve put together all have extensive injury histories and are seldom healthy for an entire season.” There are currently 66 qualified pitchers in baseball. LA have one: Yoshinobu Yamamoto. They have used sixteen different starters so far. On the other hand, they have the money and depth to withstand it far better than, say, the D-backs. As a result, it has been more an annoyance than a genuine threat to Dodger hegemony. They have the biggest lead of any division in the NL (5.5 games), and if anyone comes off the IL in the second half, that’s a bonus. LA will be just fine, cruising to their 12th title in the last 13 years. Trust me.
As previously discussed, two weeks ago, the Red Sox wouldn’t have made the list. But an ongoing 10-game winning streak cures a lot of ills. If the Seattle staff is top-heavy, Boston’s is even more so. Total bWAR = 5.0. Garrett Crochet alone is responsible for eighty percent of that. They lost Hunter Dobbins for the year to a torn ACL injury just before the break, and Walker Buehler has been flat-out terrible after signing a one-year, $21 million contract, to Jordan Montgomery levels, with a 6.12 ERA. This is a team which seems primed to make an unexpected push into the post-season, and add a rotation arm. Unless, of course, they proceed to LOSE their first ten games when things resume, because baseball.
With the Cardinals, it’s more a question of this being an unexpected year of contention. They also have a rather tenuous grip on the playoffs, with easily the lowest odds of any team listed above. On the one hand, that means the biggest chance to move the needle. On the other, they could very well spend resources – both in prospects and money – for no result. Earlier this month, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak said, “It’s bad to approach the next 30 days speaking in absolutes,… The mindset is to remain open-minded.” St. Louis went 3-3 over the week since that statement was made, so I suspect what they do will depend on how they coming out of the break.
The Cubs rotation ERA of 4.06 sits almost exactly at league average, though they still have the best run differential in baseball. That tells you a lot, although they are looking nervously over their shoulders at the Brewers, one game back. Like the Dodgers, the Cubs have just one qualified starting pitcher, in Matthew Boyd, though Shota Imanaga should be the other half a good 1-2 punch down the stretch. But thereafter, it’s questions, with a young pitcher like Cade Horton perhaps reaching his innings limit. Someone like Merrill Kelly would certainly be a boost, and with Boyd and Imanaga both being left-handers, the right-handed Kelly would provide a different look for opposing hitters, especially in a playoff series.
Finally here, are the Blue Jays. Their rotation ERA is actually worse than Arizona’s this year (4.60 vs. 4.47), which tells you something. Over the weekend, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale wrote that Toronto “could be as aggressive as any team in baseball at the deadline… are looking for a front-line pitcher, and have shown interest in Gallen.” However, they are also expecting Alek Manoah back at some point after the break, as he rehabs from UCL surgery. If he returns to his pre-operation form (career ERA+ of 123), that could provide as big a boost down the line as any trade. Keyword there is, of course, “if”, and they may want to make a move rather than relying on that.
Conclusions
One other factor to take into account is, if Arizona holds onto Gallen, he could be given a Qualifying Offer at season end, netting a bonus draft pick if he signs elsewhere. If he is traded, the QO evaporates immediately. On the other hand, would Arizona want to make Zac a QO? That might well depend on his performances down the stretch. If his ERA remains north of five, I’d be worried he’d accept, and we’d potentially be on the hook for another underperforming starting pitcher, earning north of $20 million. I’ve had enough of those in Sedona Red lately, thank you very much. But the potential draft pick is something to weigh against the return in a trade.
Kelly doesn’t have the same baggage attached, and along with his lower salary, is why I think he is more likely to be gone. He may only be a rental, but a 127 ERA+ pitcher is not exactly easily available at the deadline. Whether or not Gallen stays for the QO, I would expect Mike Hazen to be able to leverage Gallen and Kelly into useful pieces for the team’s future. With spots in the rotation likely open for 2026, he could look for controllable arms who can fill those spots immediately. Or, if he is aiming more towards 2027, with a fully healthy Corbin Burnes ready to take the ball on Opening Day, slightly younger prospects could be targeted. Even as likely sellers, it’s going to be an interesting month for AZ fans.