The trip back to the World Series begins NOW
The Diamondbacks have had an incredible off season, arguably the best since they signed a certain left-handed hall of famer. With the addition of Jordon Montgomery, they added three of the top fifteen free agents, and strengthened a team that was already play off proven. Even with the injuries they are already facing, this is a strong team and will compete against the best in the league.
On the other hand, you have the Rockies. They went 59-103 last season and in response did… nothing. The modern record for losses in a season was the ‘62 Mets with 120. I’m not sure they’ll be that bad, but I also wouldn’t be surprised if they pull it off
But the games aren’t played on paper, and no matter how weak a team seems they can still beat even the best team on any given day. So let’s see how this first series of the year shakes out.
All stats are from 2023
Game 1: Zac Gallen (17-9, 34G 3.47 ERA/125 ERA+, 1.11 WHIP) vs. Kyle Freeland (6-14, 29 G, 5.03 ERA/100 ERA+, 1.47 WHIP)
Despite his last starting being a loss that decided the outcome of the World Series, Gallen is coming off a phenomenal 2023. He cemented himself as not just the Ace of this staff, but also one of the top pitchers in baseball, culminating in a top three finish in the Cy Young voting. Over the years he has pitched very well against the Rockies, going 6-1 in 13 games. He has a 2.45 ERA and 1.15 WHIP.
Kyle Freeland has had the misfortune of spending his entire career pitching in Coors Field, which is enough to drive anyone insane. Because of this, the raw numbers are rough, but the park adjusted numbers, like ERA+ show a pitcher who has been average to a tick above for most of his career. The Diamondbacks have found ways to get to him, however. At Chase (excluding Coors then) they’ve faced him 10 times and he has an ERA of 4.96, which is more meaningful in a fairly neutral park like Chase.
Game 2: Merrill Kelly (12-8, 30 G, 3.29 ERA/132 ERA+, 1.19 WHIP) vs. Cal Quantrill (4-7, 19 G, 5.24 ERA/80 ERA+, 1.46 WHIP)
I believe, in an under the radar view, that Merrill Kelly might have actually been better than Zac Gallen last season. I’m unsure how controversial that might end up being, but he had a lower ERA, higher ERA+, and nearly the same WHIP. In something of a turn of events, the only stat that clearly favors Zac is innings pitched, as Merrill ended up missing a handful of starts on the IL. At the very least, he is 1B to Gallen’s 1A in the rotation. The best 1-2 punch the team has had since 2007.
Quantrill joined the Rockies this off season, making the jump from Cleveland. 2023 was a rough year for him, He struggled with shoulder injuries through the year, limiting him to just 19 starts, a career low 2020 excluded. He finished the year strong, though limiting opponents to just two runs or less in five of his final six starts. Coors Field is going to be working against him, but he is a candidate for a bounce back season regardless.
Game 3: Tommy Henry (5-4, 17 G, 4.15 ERA/105 ERA+, 1.36 WHIP) vs. Austin Gomber (9-9, 27 G, 5.50 ERA/92 ERA+, 1.48 WHIP)
Henry came into Spring Training competing with Ryne Nelson for the fifth starter position, but the injury to Eduardo Rodriguez rendered that a moot point in the end. To break up the other four righties in the rotation, Henry actually ended up slotting into the third spot in the rotation. He’s had three starts against Colorado and won them all. Most impressively, he has not given up a home run to the team yet, which is always a challenge when facing Colorado.
Gomber is entering his third season with the Rockies. Having put up a solid first season with them, he followed that up with two sub par seasons, with an ERA+ of only 80 in 2022 and only improving to 92 in 2023. He put up a 5.50 ERA last year, and that’s perfectly in line with his FIP 5.43. Not a case of bad luck in that case, just a mediocre season for him. He’s faced the Diamondbacks three times, and won all three. However, without looking up the specific games, I’m going to assume Coors Field shenanigans were involved as he has allowed eight home runs to Arizona in those games. Not usually a recipe for success.
Game 4: Brandon Pfaadt (3-9, 19 G, 5.72 ERA/76 ERA+, 1.40 WHIP) vs. Ryan Feltner (2-4, 10 G, 5.82 ERA/87 ERA+, 1.68 WHIP)
It almost felt as if there were two pitchers by the name of Brandon Pfaadt who played for the Diamondbacks this year. In the regular season, there was a Brandon Pfaadt who looked like a AAAA pitcher at best, couldn’t keep the ball in the park, and only managed three quality starts (a flawed metric, but still) in the season. Then in the post season, the body snatchers came by and replaced him with the Top-50 prospect we were all expecting. He pitched in some of the biggest games the Diamondbacks had in their post season run and excelled every step of the way. The hope for the Diamondbacks is that the second Brandon Pfaadt is the real one and that he’ll show up for the regular season this time.
Ryan Feltner has pitched in parts of three big league seasons now, and it has not been an easy journey for him. Unfortunately for him, the 5.82 ERA he put up last season was actually his best yet, though it still left him 13 points below average by ERA+. He has faced the Diamondbacks twice, and they weren’t particularly nice to him. He has an ERA over 11 in those two games, and he only managed a total of seven innings between the two.
Conclusion
This should be a fairly easy start to the season. The Rockies aren’t expected to be contenders for anything other than the first draft pick. Therein lies the rub, however, as they are still a professional baseball team and are pretty much guarenteed to win 50 games. The team will have to stay focused and make sure as few of those happen in this first week of the season as possible. That said, I do think the team takes care of business with at least three of the games turning into a win. If I had to pick, those wins will be Gallen, Kelly, and Pfaadt.
What really matters is that it’s time for baseball. LETS. GO.