This series could be surprisingly competitive.
The Dodgers started the season in a slump.
This season, the Dodgers are generally acknowledged as one of the best three teams in baseball. On the other hand, they started the season slowly, winning 3 series, tying 1 series, and losing 4 series (Cubs, Padres, Nats, and Mets). It may not happen, but I’d like to see Diamondbacks added to that list! Every Diamondbacks win against the Dodgers will be a cause for celebration!
The atmosphere may be a problem in the Dodgers’ clubhouse. In an effort to win more games, the Dodgers had a team meeting.
“Well, yeah, I think there’s certainly frustration because I know we’re a very talented team.” — Dave Roberts, Manager of Dodgers.
“When we lose like this, with this many games, it’s not the best atmosphere. “But we’re doing our very best to make sure we move on and do our best in our next game. We did have team meetings to be able to address this.” — Shohei Ohtani
Why are the Dodgers Losing?
In their first 12 losses, 6 were either greatly impacted by or entirely caused by the Dodgers’ bullpen. The following table shows the details:
One root cause could be that the Dodgers bullpen pitched 103.1 innings, the most innings in the Majors through 22 April.
Shohei Ohtani is worth watching.
As a DH this season, he hit 7 home runs. With two exceptions, he was a huge contributor in those games. In the other five home-run games, his contribution ranged from 10.8% to 31.6% WPA.
- On 5 April, his failed attempt at a second homer (negative 4.2%) lowered his WPA to 7.1% for that game.
- On 23 April, his 9th inning home run had little impact and his WPA was negative 3.3% for that game.
The following table shows his WPA for each game that he hit a home run.
On the other hand, there were no Runners In Scoring Position (RISP) for any of his home runs. And through 21 April with RISP, his .222 OBP and .136 SLG were poor.
This season, with his fifth home run he had 176 MLB home runs, which passed Hideki Matsui’s record for the most MLB home runs by a Japanese born player. However, Matsui’s 332 home runs in Japanese baseball (compared to Ohtani’s 48 home runs), tells me that Matsui still has more career home runs (looking at MLB and Japanese baseball).
Looking very narrowly at home runs as a Dodger, Dave Roberts, the current Dodgers manager hit 7 home runs as a Dodger. This season, Ohtani wants to exceed that total. Through 28 April, he has 7 home runs, equaling Dave Roberts’ home runs.
“I want to break my manager’s record.” — Shohei Ohtani.
Worth noting is that, as of games through 28 April, Shohei Ohtani exceeded Dave Roberts’ 721 career hits.
The Pitching Matchups.
Monday 6:40 PM Arizona time, Tommy Henry (74 ERA+) vs James Paxton (160 ERA+).
This pairing is full of promise for the Diamondbacks. While Tommy Henry is better than his stats indicate, James paxton is worse than his stats indicate.
- In Tommy Henry’s latest start, he allowed 1 earned run in 6 innings against the Cardinals.
- James Paxton’s 2.61 ERA is not sustainable because his 5.80 FIP is a career worst and his 1.548 WHIP is a career worst.
Although this pitching matchup might appear good for the Dodgers, my view is that this game is a slight advantage to the Diamondbacks.
Tuesday, 6:40 PM Arizona Time, Jordan Montgomery (200 ERA+) vs Landon Knack (129 ERA+).
Jordan Montgomery’s first two starts as a Diamondback were quality starts. This season, my goal is that he reaches 22 quality starts.
This will be Landon Knack’s third start in the Majors. His first two starts went well (4 earned runs in 11 innings).
This pitching matchup is advantage Diamondbacks.
Wednesday 6:40 PM Arizona Time, TBA perhaps Zac Gallen (121 ERA+) vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto (117 ERA+).
With Zac Gallen having a hamstring spasm in his last start, there is uncertainty whether he will start this game.
“…[by immediately leaving the game] I tried to nip it in the bud…” — Zac Gallen
This season, excluding his first game (one inning), Yoshinobu Yamamoto has pitched very well. His last start was great (zero earned runs in 6 innings). However, something interesting happened. A comeback to the mound had an exit velocity of 104.8 MPH. He instinctively raised his glove and caught the ball next to his face.
“He said he almost died.” — Dave Roberts, Dodgers Manager
This pitching matchup is fairly even.