The road-trip doesn’t get much easier.
The D-backs won their first series in New York against the Mets since 2017. It looked quite unlike after the pounding received out of the gate, but Corbin Burnes and Zac Gallen righted the ship, with some sterling work out of the bullpen. The Mets had lost only once at home before Tuesday: that tally has now tripled. It was certainly one of the most impressive performances by the D-backs this year, perhaps matched only by the other series win in New York, when they took two of three from the Yankees. But the schedule doesn’t get any easier for Arizona, as the team now heads a little further down the East coast to face Philadelphia in a three-game set.
The southpaw problem
The bad news for the D-backs is, they look likely to be facing a pair of left-handed starters in this series. Arizona has faced a southpaw starter eight times this year: they’ve gone 2-6, and only once has the pitcher in question been tagged with a loss (Carlos Rodon, during the Yankee series). The offense has struggled in general against lefties, mostly in the power department. Over all 276 at-bats against a left-handed pitcher, the D-backs have hit just four home-runs. Between them, all of our left-handed hitters have just one home-run in over a hundred AB this year off a fellow left-hander – Corbin Carroll went deep against Mason Montgomery of the Rays.
The Arizona bullpen
Shelby Miller’s redemption storyline continues, as he nailed down the series win in Citi Field. With both Opening Day closers, A.J. Puk and Justin Martinez now on the injured list, it looks like to be Miller and Kevin Ginkel who will take over going forward. However, for the first game of the series at least, both men are likely to be unavailable: they, along with Ryan Thompson pitched both Wednesday and Thursday. That leaves the B-bullpen available on Friday, including new arrival Jose Castillo. Depending on the match-up, if there ends up being a save opportunity tonight in Philadelphia, it could go to Jalen Beeks or Juan Morillo – the latter hasn’t pitched in a week. A long outing from starter Merrill Kelly would be nice!
The return of Marte
It’s widely expected that Ketel Marte will be able to come off the injured list for this series, and he posted an Instagram story indicating he was in Phillie. What roster move will be made to make room is unknown at time of writing. Jack reckons the team want to make sure they have someone on the bench who can back up Geraldo Perdomo at shortstop. With Tim Tawa having just two games experience there, he would be the obvious candidate to lose his roster spot to Ketel. But John Gambadoro’s sources tell him Tawa has done enough to stay up. His .787 OPS is certainly better than that posted by Garrett Hampson, .538. Will that be enough to make the team overlook his lack of SS experience?
In the opposing dugout
The Phillies come into this series with the same record as the D-backs, at 17-14. They had a four-game winning streak snapped yesterday, not quite being able to complete the sweep against the Nationals, losing 4-2. Arizona does have a slightly better run differential at +10 (161-151), compared to +4 for Philadelphia (140-136). As those numbers show, they’ve both scored and conceded fewer runs than the D-back so far. Kyle Schwarber is easily the Phillies best hitter to date, with an OPS+ of 154, supported by the surprising Bryson Stott and not-so surprising Bryce Harper. Lefty Jose Alvarado anchors an otherwise bad bullpen, and has been perfect in five save chances, with an eye-popping 21:2 K:BB ratio over 14.2 IP.
Expected match-ups (subject to change)
Friday, 3:45 pm: RHP Merrill Kelly (3-1, 4.41 ERA) vs. LHP Jesús Luzardo (3-0, 1.73 ERA)
The first left-hander we see this weekend will be Luzardo, who got the win last time out, holding the powerful Cubs line-up to two unearned runs over six innings. He also beat the Dodgers, and was even more impressive there, tossing seven shutout frames of two-hit ball against them. He’s averaging more than six innings per start, and has a K:BB of better than four, so this will be a tough match-up, especially given the problems Arizona has had versus LHP. Kelly got a quality no-decision his last time out, allowing two runs over six innings against Atlanta. But his strikeout rate is at a career low 6.9 per nine innings, well below the MLB average of 8-3.
Saturday, 3:05 pm: RHP Brandon Pfaadt (5-1, 2.78 ERA vs. RHP Aaron Nola (0-5, 5.40 ERA)
Obviously, wins are a flawed metric for pitchers, but it’s hard to argue other than that this match-up probably represents the D-backs’ best chance of a win. There’s an increasing sense that Pfaadt has been the staff ace this year, and with six turns completed through the rotation, he had both the lowest ERA and FIP among out starters. Meanwhile, there’s still five years left on Nola’s seven year, $172 million deal, so Philadelphia will want better there. He didn’t pitch badly at all last time out, giving up one run over seven innings in Wrigley Field. However, it was the first start where he has posted a Game Score better than 52. I’m hoping it was an aberration, and he will return to the previous mediocre performance level.
Sunday, 11:05 am: LHP Eduardo Rodriguez (1-3, 6.06 ERA) vs. LHP Ranger Suárez (N/A)
It’ll be Suarez’s first start of the season, since he was sidelined during spring training by lower back stiffness. He has made four rehab starts, the last reaching 78 pitches, so should not be on much of a pitch count limitation against the D-backs. Interestingly, the Phillies may end up going to a six-man rotation after his return, not something you see often in the majors. Rodriguez will be looking to bounceback from a dreadful outing against the Mets, one of the worst of his career, allowing eight earned runs in four innings. That also bumped his FIP up over four, though it’s still more than two runs below his ERA. Will his ERA come down, or will his FIP go up?
Prediction time
The key for the D-backs is going to be to keep the game close against the Phillies starters. The home bullpen is definitely a weak spot, so should provide opportunities for the potent Arizona hitters – now likely including Ketel Marte – to score runs. The rotation however, is a different matter. Getting them out of the game will be helpful, so hopefully we’ll see patient at-bats from the D-backs, running up the pitch count early. It’s a return for them to the site of the team’s biggest triumph in recent history, Game 7 of the 2023 NLCS. Hopefully, the results this weekend will be as satisfactory. What do you think will happen?