In Canada pregame things take just 7 minutes.
Worse than their record suggests?
The Toronto Blue Jays are currently at 38-33. That record is not good enough for them to lead the AL East or to be runners up, but the third place in their division is still enough for them to currently hold a Wild Card. As a matter of fact, all 3 Wild Cards in the American League are currently in the hands of the AL East. Talking about a dominating division…
Needless to say, the Arizona Diamondbacks will play against a strong opponent and that is good news. Good news, because we know that the Diamondbacks play better against stronger opponents and are susceptible to disappoint against the weaker ones.
After winning the series against the Padres the Diamondbacks have cut the Padres lead in the NL West over the Snakes, but Arizona can still use every win they can get; they are still 3 games behind the Padres, who also hold the last Wild Card. Brewers, Reds and Cardinals are also all ahead of Arizona, so, yeah, winning is a necessity.
Toronto hovered around 1st and 2nd place in the AL East before dipping below .500 at the end of April. They reached their record low of 4 games below .500 on May 7 but two weeks later they were back at .500, sweeping the Padres and Mariners along their way. Sweeping the Athletics at the end of May in a 4-game series certainly helped their good cause and brought them back into contention, with a nice 11-2 record for 2 weeks, also sweeping the Cardinals, for which we are very grateful. Last weekend though they encountered a big bump in the road when the Phillies swept the Blue Jays in a 3-game series, two of which with a 7 and 8 run differential.
That big run differential in those two lost games is also reflected in their Pythagorean win-loss record of 34-37, because the Blue Jays have allowed more runs (314) than they have scored (302). It reflects the difficulties with their pitching staff. The Blue Jays starters’ FIP is with 4.81 well below Arizona’s 4.27 and they only leave the Rockies and Athletics behind as worst starting pitchers. Their bullpen FIP of 3.60 is a major league top 10 record, their actual ERA is with 3.65 similar and still 11th in the entire major league. Ace Jose Berrios has been solid, though not outstanding, and has gotten very little run support. For Chris Bassitt the same can be said, while Kevin Gausman has been able to pitch league average-ish. Bowden Francis has been working as the 4th starter, but has been worse than Pfaadt, with a 6+ ERA. The Blue Jays have not been able to work with a decent 5th starter. They signed Max Scherzer for that role (or better), but the former Washington ace has continued to struggle with injuries and has appeared in just 3 innings so far. Alek Manoah is still out with TJ surgery. Toronto has a solid though thin bullpen. Yimi García has been out for the season so far, but Toronto has seen good production from Rodríguez, Little and Fluharty. Last year All Star closer for the Phillies Jeff Hoffman tailed off quite a bit in May for the Blue Jays, but lately has been able to close games out again. 17 saves look good, though 2 losses and 3 blown saves and a 5.70 ERA might give your average Canadian a Fernando Rodney experience.
On the position player’s side, we should first mention that we will not see Daulton Varsho in this series. The always likeable center fielder will be missed on the Toronto team, because his .543 OPS is 2nd on the team and with 8 homeruns in 24 games he has by far the best homerun per game average on the entire team. Although their 102 WRC+ is around league average, for a team with playoff aspirations it is rather disappointing. Beside Varsho, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is obviously the team’s biggest threat, although his production is surprisingly behind George Springer’s; the 35 year old’s 10 homeruns and .824 OPS lead the team. Other than them the catching duo of Alejandro Kirk and Tyler Heineman (both great in defence) has been excellent. Bo Bichette is hitting right at league average and has bounced back until now from a very disappointing 2024, while big offseason signing Anthony Santander has been the team’s biggest deception so far: the 2024 All Star for the Orioles has hit just 6 homeruns in 50 games and his .577 OPS is atrocious. Oh, and the Blue Jays are a pretty bad running team too.
The Blue Jays lead 13-12 all time against the Diamondbacks and are 22-13 at home this season.
Matchups.
Game #1 Tue 06/17 4:07 PM MST, Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) vs Chris Bassitt (TOR).
- Brandon Pfaadt. 14 GS, 70.1 IP, 8 W-4 L, 5.50 ERA, 5.12 FIP, 1.42 WHIP, 55/18 K/BB.
- Chris Bassitt. 14 GS, 80.1 IP, 7 W-3 L, 3.70 ERA, 3.61 FIP, 1.31 WHIP, 78/19 K/BB.
The fact that Pfaadt was able to go 5 innings and did not give up more than 2 runs in his latest start against the Mariners was just awesome. 5 runs per 9 innings is what we should expect here, so if Pfaadt is able to go once again 5 innings and give up 2-3 runs, I would call that a quality start. It will be Pfaadt’s first time facing the Blue Jays.
That cannot be said for opponent Chris Bassitt who has pretty much silenced the Diamondbacks the past 5 years, notching 4 wins and a no-decision. Bassitt went 7 innings in both of his final two outings, though had more success against the Phillies two weeks ago then last week against the Cardinals. Bassitt will pitch against the Diamondbacks on a 7-day rest.
Game #2 Wed 06/18 4:07 PM MST, Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI) vs TBD (TOR).
- Eduardo Rodriguez. 11 GS, 56.0 IP, 2 W-3 L, 6.27 ERA, 4.27 FIP, 1.59 WHIP, 60/19 K/BB.
- TBD.
Eduardo Rodriguez’ ERA is still hideous but he was better in his last two appearances, although E-Rod still hasn’t pitched a clean game yet this season.
Eric Lauer was the Blue Jays’ starter the last time in this rotation spot, reserved for Max Scherzer, but not even ESPN has listed a probable starter for this game. Scherzer is supposed to start another rehab game in Triple A on Wednesday, but maybe the Blue Jays surprise and we see our former farm hand take up the ball against the Snakes for a 70-pitch start. If not, it could be Eric Lauer again or a handful of the other spot starters who threw the first Blue Jays’ pitch of a game this season.
Game #3 Thu 06/19 12:07 AM MST, Ryne Nelson (ARI) vs Kevin Gausman (TOR).
- Ryne Nelson. 15 G, 5 GS, 50.0 IP, 3 W-2 L, 4.14 ERA, 3.55 FIP, 1.14 WHIP, 41/16 K/BB.
- Kevin Gausman. 14 GS, 81.2 IP, 5 W-5 L, 4.08 ERA, 3.51 FIP, 1.07 WHIP, 80/21 K/BB.
After a stinker against the Reds, Nelson pitched much better against the Padres and his 1-run performance was enough to achieve his 3rd win. Hopefully he can continue that good trend.
As his FIP already suggests, Gausman has been a bit unlucky so far this season. His K/BB is way better than last year, when he achieved a 3.83 ERA over the season. Obviously, our memories of Gausman aren’t terrific as he nullified the Snakes in all of his games in 2021, when he was pitching in his second season with the Giants and had his best season ever.