Will the best team sweep the series?
Who will win the series?
Offense and momentum are slight edge Diamondbacks.
The positive: let’s compare games from June 1 through June 21.
- Runs Scored Per Game. The Diamondbacks (5.6 runs per game). The Marlins (3.7 runs per game).
- Win Loss Record. The Diamondbacks (12-6). The Marlins (7-12).
The negative: if injuries keep Carroll and Suarez out of the batting lineup in this series, offense will take a hit.
Pitching is unpredictable, with a slight edge to the Diamondbacks.
The positive: from June 1 through 21, when the Diamondbacks pitchers had runs support (at least 3 runs scored) they won 85% of their games. That is better than the Marlins who won 70% of their games with 3 runs scored.
The negative: On 25 June, the Diamondbacks pitchers had 3 runs of support, but lost to the White Sox 3-7.
Power Rankings are advantage Diamondbacks.
- Diamondbacks are 15th and Marlins are 28th per MLB.com.
- Diamondbacks are 18th and Marlins are 26th per FanGraphs.
- Diamondbacks are 16th and Marlins are 28th per The Athletic.
- Diamondbacks are 14th and Marlins are 26th per CBS Sports.
With all new coaches, this season the Marlins are in a rebuild, with an openness to trades that improve the team per this MLBTR article.
And in case you wondered, the Diamondbacks won their last 6 head-to-head games with the Marlins.
All things considered, although the Diamondbacks fell short of sweeping the Rockies and fell short of sweeping the White Sox, my optimistic prediction (with risk) is that the Diamondbacks sweep the Marlins.
Marlins to Watch.
The Marlins are a young team. The active roster has 8 players age 25 or younger per Roster Resource. No active player is older than 30 years old. Watch them to predict who will someday be an All-Star.
Catcher Agustin Ramirez is a top-100 prospect in baseball. This season (his first in the Majors) he hit 11 home runs in 211 PAs, which is excellent (although his OPS+ is about average)!
What to look for each day.
Friday, 6:40 PM MST.
Merrill Kelly. This season, his 3.39 ERA and his average 5.8 innings per game make him a stalwart part of the rotation. In his last start, which was at Coors field, he allowed only 2 earned runs in 6 innings pitched.
Eury Perez. In April of 2024, he had Tommy John surgery with an internal brace. This season, in his first 3 games, his ERA was 6.17. In context that in 2023 his home-runs-per-9-innings was 1.5, it’s remarkable that this season he allowed zero homers in 54 batters faced.
This matchup of starting pitchers is advantage Diamondbacks.
Saturday, 1:10 PM MST.
Brandon Pfaadt. After an excellent April, he had disappointing results in May (8.10 ERA) and June (7.00 ERA). A glimmer of hope was seen in his latest game. I liked Diamondhacks’ comments in the game thread (vs Rockies). One of his comments follows:
“He surrendered almost no hard contact today. Except that one, at the worst possible time” — Diamondhacks
If Pfaadt could consistently have very few hard hits (and more specifically reduce his HR9), then it will help the Diamondbacks win games.
Sandy Alcantara. This season his ERA was consistently above 8, until recently. In June his ERA is 2.74, largely because three of the four teams he faced have poor offenses (Rockies, Pirates, and Braves).
This matchup of starting pitchers is a toss-up.
Sunday, 1:10 PM MST.
Eduardo Rodriguez. In May, he had shoulder inflamation. He missed the second half of May. In June his ERA is 2.05.
Cal Quantrill. he had a cramp in his left hamstring on 17 June, pitching against the Phillies. The problem did not repeat in his next start. In June, his ERA is 4.82.
This matchup of starting pitchers is advantage Diamondbacks.