Welcome back, Robbie!
The Giants below .500?
Our next opponent is currently below .500 with a 33-35 record and….HAHAHA…I got you wondering, right? I heard you thinking: “what is this European retard writing?!”.
Well, you might be surprised if I tell you that it is not far from the truth. The Giants were off to a great start of the season and were 12-4 in their first 16 games, but ever since, and that would be April 14 (or April 16 if you take their 13-5 record after wrapping up the series they played against the Phillies), the Giants have slumped to a below .500 record. Truth told, again, they just lost 5 of their last 6 (against the White Sox and Miami), so until a week ago they were theoretically a bit better than .500, but it goes to show that despite a 45-39 record and a third spot in the NL West (they just gave the 2nd away to the Padres), the Giants are perhaps not that good (sssshhhh, don’t tell anyone else!).
The Giants are pretty much having the problems that the Diamondbacks were suffering last season for a long time: a slumping offence. Their 349 runs is 21st in the entire league and their .684 OPS is 24th. Compare that to Arizona, which ranks 3rd in the MLB in both of those categories.
The Giants are definitely not swinging the bats and it does not really surprise that much, since the presence of a typical superstar (slugger) is something San Francisco has looked for but couldn’t find, for a variety of reasons. They thought that with the signing of Willy Adames they could fill out part of that void, but since signing that 7 year / $182 million contract, the Dominican shortstop is having one of his worst offensive performances ever with his .637 OPS, while also being a disappointment defensively.
Last season’s diamond in a rough Tyler Fitzgerald was recently optioned, former 1st baseman LaMonte Wade Jr. was already ditched after a disastrous performance, while center fielder Lee is lumping to a batting line well below .200 in June. The offensive threat these days come from Heliot Ramos, Casey Schmitt and Matt Chapman, with the latter out for this series but he has been replaced formidably by the former. Rafael Devers, meanwhile, still needs to shake things lose, according to his .217/.333/.391 batting line.
A tepid offence means that the Giants have a hot pitching corps and that is indeed the case. The Giants’ combined pitching ERA is 3.41, which is 2nd in the entire MLB. Their 3.48 FIP is MLB best. Their 39 quality starts is MLB’s 5th and their 61 holds MLB’s 3rd. The bullpen ERA of 2.91 is MLB best, showing that Camilo Doval, Tyler Rogers, Randy Rodriguez and lefty Erik Miller is a tough party to beat.
Just like the Padres, the Giants are now out of a Wild Card. So, it is no longer enough for the Diamondbacks to beat the Giants, who are 3.5 wins above us, but we also need to be better than the St. Louis Cardinals, who hold the final wild card with 5 wins more than Arizona.
Matchups.
Game #1 Mon 06/30 6:40 PM MST, Logan Webb (SFG) vs Ryne Nelson (ARI).
- Logan Webb. 17 GS, 107.1 IP, 7 W-7 L, 2.52 ERA, 2.25 FIP, 1.14 WHIP, 120/23 K/BB. $12,000,000.
- Ryne Nelson. 17 G, 7 GS, 60.2 IP, 4 W-2 L, 3.71 ERA, 3.84 FIP, 1.06 WHIP, 52/21 K/BB. $825,000.
Logan Webb needs no introduction. He is probably on his way to his second All Star selection and Arizona will not prevent that from happening. Last year he shut the Diamondbacks out in both of his matchups and got the win in both of those games. Webb has had 6 quality starts in a row now, although last time it was not enough to get a win against a resurging Marlins. Webb throws more than 100 pitches frequently this season and good chance he will reach that threshold again in Phoenix.
A tough matchup for Ryne Nelson, but he hasn’t done bad either in his last 3 starts, holding Padres, Toronto and White Sox to each just 1 run. Last season Nelson had two starts against the Giants and did well, holding San Francisco to two runs in each game.
In all honesty, this matchup could be tighter than Travis Kelce’s pants.
Game #2 Tue 07/01 6:40 PM MST, Hayden Birdsong (SFG) vs Zac Gallen (ARI).
- Hayden Birdsong. 18 G, 7 GS, 56.2 IP, 3 W-2 L, 4.13 ERA, 4.43 FIP, 1.14 WHIP, 120/23 K/BB. $765,000
- Zac Gallen. 17 GS, 97.0 IP, 5 W-9 L, 5.75 ERA, 5.18 FIP, 1.41 WHIP, 88/42 K/BB. $13,500,000
Hayden Birdsong is back ever since the Giants dumped Jordan Hicks in the Devers trade. Birdsong is in his second season now and he pitched twice against the Diamondbacks last year, both of his appearances in September. In his first outing he lasted just 3 innings and 77 pitches, in his second he got a win, giving up 2 runs in 5 innings. As said, Birdsong started the season in the bullpen but was preferred over Hicks by the end of May, his first start came after 3 tough innings in a 7-8 loss against Arizona. Birdsong did fine in his first 5 appearances, but has struggled in his latest two outings, giving up a combined 12 runs in 8.1 innings. Birdsong averages 95-96 mph on his fastball, but his secondary stuff is more quantity than quality.
You’d say that is good new for the Diamondbacks until you see that Zac Gallen is climbing the mound for the Snakes in this matchup.
Game #3 Wed 07/02 6:40 PM MST, Landen Roupp (SFG) vs Merrill Kelly (ARI).
- Landen Roupp. 16 GS, 81.1 IP, 6 W-5 L, 3.43 ERA, 3.71 FIP, 1.38 WHIP, 56/24 K/BB. $765,000
- Merrill Kelly. 17 GS, 98.0 IP, 7 W-4 L, 3.49 ERA, 3.33 FIP, 1.07 WHIP, 100/26 K/BB. $7,000,000
Landen Roupp is doing better than expected. With just 21.1 innings in AAA under his belt, he made the jump to the majors last season, after an injury riddled 2022 that kept him to 31 innings. Roupp is on a pitch count this season and will probably not throw much more than 70 pitches. After the All Star break the Giants are likely to fade him out for the season. His fastballs are far from impressive but his breaking stuff (curve and change up) are playing out tremendously well this season, amassing many ground balls.
Merrill Kelly pitched against the Giants in the previous series and he limited San Francisco to just 1 run in 7 innings, with 8 strikeouts.
Game #4 Thu 07/03 6:40 PM MST, Robbie Ray (SFG) vs Brandon Pfaadt (ARI).
- Robbie Ray. 17 GS, 98.1 IP, 8 W-3 L, 2.75 ERA, 3.33 FIP, 1.15 WHIP, 110/38 K/BB. $25,000,000
- Brandon Pfaadt. 17 GS, 85.1 IP, 8 W-5 L, 5.38 ERA, 4.89 FIP, 1.38 WHIP, 72/21 K/BB. $799,400
It is always nice to see Robbie Ray return to Arizona, being this the first time. It seems so long ago (and it is long ago) that one of my favourite pitchers in the snake skin-shirt knocked out batter after batter. That was 2017 and from that year on, he was not as good as hoped until in 2020* all was lost and he and cash were moved to Toronto for Travis Bergen. The next year he won a Cy Young for Toronto and was offered $115,000,000 from Seattle. He didn’t do bad in his first season, but certainly didn’t live up to the contract, although Hazen would have celebrated that 3.71 ERA like there is no tomorrow. After a TJ surgery, Dipoto dumped Ray in San Francisco for Mitch Haniger and Anthony DeSclafani. Ray said “Thanks”, pitched to a 4.70 ERA in 30.2 innings after his TJ return, and is now living up to that big contract, which ends after next season. 110 strikeouts in 98 innings is not yet the Robbie Ray we got to see in Arizona, but still a dominating one. Although Ray got the loss in his latest outing (1 run over 6 innings against the White Sox), it was a bounce back after 3 less impressive outings. Ray will look to continue the good season in a homecoming.
Brandon Pfaadt will have a tough assignment going up against Ray. Maybe Pfaadt can avoid himself from giving up those multiple runs in a specific innings. Easier said than done, of course.