Will this series have a come from behind win?
Who will win the series?
Offense is advantage Diamondbacks: In games through 30 June, the Diamondbacks’ 5.19 runs per game ranked third, while the Royals 3.28 runs per game ranked last in the Majors (Baseball Reference).
Bullpen Pitching is advantage Royals. In games through 28 June, the Royals ranked about average (9th in OBP, 12th in SLG, and 11th in wOBA) while the Diamondbacks ranked low (26th in OBP, 30th in SLG, and 27th in wOBA).
Both teams have a lot of blown leads. In games through 30 June, the Royals blew leads in 23 games while the Diamondbacks blew leads in 28 games. The largest blown lead for the Royals was 4 runs, while for the Diamondbacks it was 6 runs. My view is that in this series at least one game will be a comeback win.
All things considered, optimistically the Diamondbacks will win the series with one comeback win.
Royals to Watch.
Taylor Clarke, bullpen. He pitched for the Diamondbacks from 2019 to 2021. They granted him free agency, and the Royals signed him. This season through 29 June, his ERA is 3.68 in 22 innings.
Bobby Witt and Salvador Perez seem to be battling for home run king. Each of them had 5 home runs in June.
What to look for each day.
Friday, 6:40 PM MST.
Eduardo Rodriguez. In June, his ERA was 1.98 in 5 games. In his latest start against the Marlins, he allowed only 1 earned run in 5.1 innings.
Kris Bubic. In June, his ERA was 4.23 in 5 games. In his latest start against the Dodgers, he allowed 2 earned runs in 5.0 innings.
This matchup of starting pitchers is a big advantage Diamondbacks.
Saturday, 1:10 PM MST.
Ryne Nelson. On the positive side, he is seven years younger than the Royals starter (Wacha). In June, his ERA was 3.91 in 5 games. His last four starts each has an above average game score. In June, 3 batters he faced grounded into double plays.
Michael Wacha. In June, his ERA was 5.40 in 5 games. In June, only one batter he faced grounded into a double play.
This matchup of starting pitchers is a advantage Diamondbacks.
Sunday, 1:10 PM MST.
“The team is thinking of giving everyone an extra day of rest, starting with Gallen.” — Jack Sommers
Zac Gallen (maybe or maybe not). On the positive side, he is four years younger than the Royals starter (Lorenzen). In June, his ERA was 6.23 in 5 games. In his latest start, he was an entirely new pitcher, allowing only 1 earned run in 7 innings against the Giants. I’m certain his game score will be above 60 for the fifth time this season (albeit his fourth time was almost a month ago (3 June). Happily, an average performance (by whoever starts) could allow the Diamondbacks’ offense to win the game.
Michael Lorenzen. In June, his ERA was 6.32 in 5 games. In his latest start, he allowed 3 earned runs in 4.2 innings against the Mariners.
This matchup of starting pitchers is a toss-up.