Must win? Must win.
The Diamondbacks head to San Diego to take on the Padres. The Friars go into the series tied with the Giants for the final wild card position, while Arizona is 4.5 games back and the fan base is losing hope. If there is to be any chance of being buyers at the deadline, this is a must win series
(Sorry, running late for work, so this is going to be a quick one)
Game 1 — 7/7, 6:40 PM — Zac Gallen (6-9, 5.54 ERA, 77 ERA+, 1.63 WHIP) vs Yu Darvish (First start)
Yu Darvish will take the mound for the first time in the 2025 season. He had been out with elbow inflammation since Spring Training, something of a little extra concern since he has had one Tommy John surgery already. Those fears seem to be behind them now, as he’ll face off against the Diamondbacks in game 1.
Game 2 — 7/8, 6:40PM — Merrill Kelly (7-4, 3.55 ERA, 118 ERA+, 1.087 WHIP) vs. Nick Pivetta (9-2, 3.25 ERA, 127 ERA+, 1.04 WHIP)
Pivetta was an offseason signing for the Padres who has worked out very well. He’s had a couple games where he’s given up four or more runs, but overall, he’s kept the Padres in the games he’s started, all while pitching into the sixth inning. Really, I see a lot of similarities in his results to Merrill Kelly, his opposite in this game.
Game 3 — 7/9, 6:40 PM — Brandon Pfaadt (8/6, 5.42 ERA, 77 ERA+, 1.38 WHIP) vs. Dylan Cease (3-8, 4.62 ERA, 90 ERA+, 1.32 WHIP)
Cease is having a down year compared to last season where he got Cy Young votes. By ERA+, he’s below average, and the Padres are just .500 in games that he’s started. In the last four games, he has given up four or more runs three times, and this might be the best chance the Diamondbacks get when facing a pitcher of Cease’s overall caliber.
Game 4 — 7/10, 6/40 PM — Eduardo Rodriguez (3-5, 5.78 ERA, 72 ERA+, 1.62 WHIP) vs. Randy Vasquez (3-4, 3.79 ERA, 109 ERA+, 1.36 WHIP)
Vasquez has had a good run this season. He doesn’t go deep into games, but he’s been preventing runs during those innings, which is all a team can ask for. He might be a bit on the lucky side, though, as his FIP is a run and a half higher than his ERA.
Conclusion
I don’t think most of us are under the delusion that the Diamondbacks are contenders right now. They aren’t so far back that there is no possibility that could change, but it’s looking more and more unlikely every game. There best chance to make a statement is in this series and make up some serious ground against a division rival. Doesn’t seem super likely with the scary trio of Gallen, Pfaadt, and Rodriguez all starting in the same stretch. Hopefully the extra day of rest is exactly what they needed. Best case scenario, however, I see this as a series split.