And SnakeBytes!
Given the ridiculous Friday morning start time dictated by archaic Chicago city ordinances, bit of a press for time between morning coffee and first pitch, so I’ll be combining the preview and Bytes this morning. So before we break down the Diamondbacks first visit to Wrigley this season, enjoy a couple of choice links from around the internet!
(SI.com) What are the Keys to the Diamondbacks’ Trade Deadline Decisions?
The Diamondbacks are coming off their All Star Break, in far better shape than they honestly have any right to be. Above .500 and within striking distance of a playoff spot is pretty incredible given the issues that the has faced between the injuries and underperformance of key players. The Wild Card race is slowly starting to shake itself out, but yet the Diamondbacks are still in it.
On the other hand, the Cubs are one of the teams that have seen themselves slide back from contention. They are currently 3.5 games out of the final spot, and I won’t say that a series sweep would basically be the end of their season, I will say that it’s a position that I very much would not want the Diamondbacks to be in.
Game 1 – 7/19, 11:20AM – Ryne Nelson (6-6, 4.98 ERA/81 ERA+, 1.41 WHIP) vs. Justin Steele (2-3, 2.71 ERA/156 ERA+, 0.95 WHIP)
Don’t look know, but Nelson continues to improve his season numbers with almost every start. He’s now down below a 5 ERA for the first time since April 18th, and his ERA+ now matches last season’s number. He still has a semi-regular blow out in him, but they seem to be coming less frequently. Between him and Mena, looks like the decisions on who to keep and who to demote when Montgomery comes back might be harder than we expected.
Steele is a perfect example of how and why Pitcher Wins are overrated as a statistic, as he is clearly pitching at an elite level by every other metric, but will be going for just his third win on the year. He’s going tough for the Diamondbacks. He won’t walk you, he won’t give you many walks and fewer home runs, and he will strike out you. The last time he gave up more than three earned runs was all the way back on May 22nd.
Game 2 – 7/20, 4:15PM – Zac Gallen (6-7, 3.87 ERA/105 ERA+, 1.12 WHIP) vs. Kyle Hendricks (2-7, 6.78 ERA/62 ERA+, 1.50 WHIP)
It sure would be nice if the Diamondbacks could get Gallen back, because the pitcher who they activated from the IL clearly is someone else. Thanks almost entirely to his last three starts, his overall numbers are that of a basically average pitcher, but in the context what he has done it has been pretty bad. The Diamondbacks are going to need him to pitch decently and go past the fourth inning this time around.
I did not realize how poorly Hendricks has fallen off this season. It was actually so bad he was kicked over to the bullpen for about a month or so, where he did do better, but injuries forced them to reevaluate and put him back into a starter role. In the five starts since returning, the numbers are average, but they are skewed by the fact that in three of the starts he got two quality starts and one that was a third of an inning away, but also two games where he he was knocked out in less than four innings.
Game 3 – 7/21, 11:20AM – Brandon Pfaadt (4-6, 3.97 ERA/102 ERA+, 1.15 WHIP) vs. Shota Imanaga (8-2, 2.97 ERA/142 ERA+, 1.11 WHIP)
I’m not sure if anyone is ready to hear this yet, but if the season were to end today, Pfaadt would be Pittie Cy Young Award, and I’m not sure it would even be close. He’s been the only member of the Opening Day rotation to avoid an extended stay on the IL, and he has been dependable on the mound while being available. Perhaps the most improved facet of his game, however, is that he has almost halved his home run rate from last season in the same number of games (19). This team is in the lottery without Pfaadt.
I feel bad for Imanaga in a way. To start the season, he was probably the second most likely winner of the Rookie of the Year behind Yamamoto, but as soon as Yamamoto was out of the way, Imanaga was immediately blocked by Paul Skeenes as far as that end of year award goes. Still a dangerous pitcher, though, and the Diamondbacks will need to be on their toes for this one as well.
Conclusion
I think the Diamondbacks are favored in two of these matchups and stand even a slight chance of outdueling Steele for a while, as long as Nelson continues his current stretch. I don’t think they’ll sweep, though, so I’ll go with winning the last two and not being able to beat Steel in Game 1. Go Dbacks!