You’d say that the Diamondbacks cannot lose this series.
The Cardinals were abysmal in 2023.
The sky was the limit for the Cardinals in 2023. In 2022 the St. Louis Cardinals had gotten stellar MVP-production from Paul Goldschmidt and unlike in many season with the Diamondbacks, it immediately got the birdos the NL Central title. Goldschmidt was backed by another superstar at the other corner, Nolan Arenado and even Albert Pujols had a very good season in what would be his farewell. The team got good although unspectacular performances from their starting pitchers. Despite an impressive 93-69 finish in their division and being a favourite in the post-season, the Cardinals season was wiped away by the Philadelphia Phillies in the NLDS.
So what did the Cardinals do for their 2023 season? Not much. Yadier Molina said goodbye and Willson Contreras was signed as his successor. Adam Wainwright would return for another season and…that was basically it.
Instead of adding more quality bats and arms, the Cardinals relied on their core team and that became their nemesis during 2024. Their unspectacular starting pitching pretty much fell apart (except for now Diamondback Jordan Montgomery), evidenced by the 7.40 ERA for Wainwright. The bullpen performance was mediocre to bad except for closer Ryan Helsley although he also blew 5 of an already low 19 save opportunities.
On the offence side of things the team was steady, but unspectacular. Goldschmidt and Contreras led the pack with OPS+ of 120+, but Arenado, for example, had his lowest OPS+ season if we don’t consider his rookie and 2020 season.
Add to that the weird Contreras saga where the catcher was removed from his catching role only to be reinstated again after a few days. Much murmur and criticism soared around the manager Oliver Marmol and the front office.
So, what did the Cardinals do this off-season? Again, not much. Obviously they had to do something with their rotation so they revamped their rotation, of whom only Mikolas has stayed, while Matz gets yet another opportunity to establish himself as a starting pitcher. They are now complemented by Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn and, of course, big free agent signing Sonny Gray. To the bullpen the Cardinals added former Diamondback Keynan Middleton.
Nothing spectacular happened with the position players either, on the contrary. Tyler O’Neill was traded to the Red Sox to get a couple of young pitchers and Matt Carpenter was brought back for some depth, just like the Cards added former Giant franchise face Brandon Crawford.
The most interesting moves were made somewhere else: manager Oliver Marmol got a vote of confidence to the surprise of many and signed a two-year extension. In the front office President of Baseball Operations John Mozeliak got 3 new special advisors/assistants in former Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom, club legend Yadier Molina and bench coach Joe McEwing. That last move opened a position for former Diamondback Daniel Descalso to become the new bench coach for the Cardinals.
So, it pretty much looks like some light retooling in St. Louis where they probably expect some bounceback performances, but if that is really in the offering remains to be seen. The Cardinals will probably see how it goes this year, but it would be a surprise if this teams wins their division.
5th in the NL Central.
The Cardinals looked hopeless in their first two games against the Dodgers, despite an almost comeback in the second game, and were probably a bit lucky to win the third game and then almost tied the series, but lost in a close final fourth game.
Against the Padres they had a great offensive first game and some big hits in the second to take the series, before losing a close third game.
In their home opener they took 2 of 3 from the Miami Marlins, taking advantage of weaker Miami pitching, who did got their first win in the 10th game of the season in St. Louis, where they blew out the Cardinals.
Now, right before heading to Arizona, the Cardinals were outhit by the Phillies in each game but won one of the three, rallying behind a terrific performance from Sonny Gray and the bullpen for a shutout.
So, the results are definitely not what belongs to a team that will fight for the play-offs, although the Dodgers, Padres and Phillies are far from easy opponents. The Cardinals are currently last in the NL Central, where the Brewers and Pirates have had a great start of the season (just like last year), with the Cubs, Reds and Cardinals all hovering around .500, with the Cardinals having the worst record: 6-7.
The pitching performance has been similar to that of the Diamondbacks, but the offence is currently second last in the entire MLB, measured by OPS+ (Goldschmidt: 53 OPS+, Arenado: 58 OPS+, Jordan Walker: 34 OPS+). But there are a few glimpses of hope: center fielder Lars Nootbaar has returned from the IL and will be ready for the series with the Diamondbacks, just like Sonny Gray, although he won’t pitch in Arizona.
The return of those players won’t mean that the Hulk suddenly arises, but nor is that Cardinals offence the Bruce Banner it looks like right now. It is a matter of time before those bats start roaring again and you just hope that it won’t occur until after the upcoming series in Arizona.
Matchups.
Game #1 Fri 04/12 6:40 PM MST, Steven Matz (STL) vs Brandon Pfaadt (ARI).
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- Steven Matz. 2 GS, 10.1 IP, 1 W-0 L, 1.74 ERA, 3.21 FIP, 1.16 WHIP, 2.00 K/BB.
- Brandon Pfaadt. 2 GS, 10.2 IP, 1 W-0 L, 5.06 ERA, 2.84 FIP, 1.31 WHIP, 13.00 K/BB.
Steven Matz gets another opportunity in the starting rotation in St. Louis. Yeah, what else should you do if you need to revamp almost the entire starting rotation and you still owe a guy $24MM who either pitches in the rotation or in long relief. Early results are fine for Matz, who survived in Los Angeles and got the win against the Marlins. Matz sports a hard sinker and a change-up, complemented normally with a curveball although in a small sample size this season he has used his slider a bit more. Last season Matz pitched six scoreless innings in July against the Diamondbacks, but got a No-Decision.
Brandon Pfaadt will look to rebound from a tough outing against the Braves. He has never faced the Cardinals, so he can add some extra crooked numbers to those 13 K.
I am pretty confident that Pfaadt will dazzle the Cardinals, so here is our first W of the series.
Game #2 Sat 04/13 5:10 PM MST, Kyle Gibson (STL) vs Ryne Nelson (ARI).
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- Kyle Gibon. 2 GS, 13.0 IP, 1 W-1 L, 6.23 ERA, 6.52 FIP, 1.08 WHIP, 3.00 K/BB.
- Ryne Nelson. 2 GS, 7.2 IP, 0 W-2 L, 8.22 ERA, 5.82 FIP, 1.83 WHIP, 2.25 K/BB.
It was a terrible performance against the Yankees, but against the Braves Nelson got out of the darkness and stepped into the light and pitched actually decently, although it still wasn’t enough for a win. If Nelson pitches again like he did in Atlanta and the offence doesn’t hide itself, he should be able to achieve his first win of the season. Last and only time he faced the Cardinals: 2 homeruns, 5 runs, 8 hits in 5 innings of work.
The Cardinals counter with 36 year old veteran Kyle Gibson. Pitching half of your career to an ERA above 5.00 and still have a long life in the MLB, ask Gibson how he does it. Probably having 6 different pitches in your arsenal is a good answer. At one time it will stop though and maybe it is after this season. Gibson has allowed 2 homeruns in each of his two outings and especially against the Marlins he was punished hard, giving up 7 runs in 6 innings. Velocity has been a bit down when compared to last season, but it is a small sample size and maybe he is still ramping up.
Hands up for Ryne Nelson and our second win of the series!
Game #3 Sun 04/14 1:10 PM MST, Miles Mikolas (STL) vs Zac Gallen (ARI).
Yoga on the Field – Special Event
- Miles Mikolas. 3 GS, 17.0 IP, 1 W-1 L, 4.76 ERA, 4.21 FIP, 1.47 WHIP, 2.40 K/BB.
- Zac Gallen. 3 GS, 16.0 IP, 2 W-0 L, 2.25 ERA, 1.96 FIP, 1.19 WHIP, 3.80 K/BB.
Well, no doubt about this one: if the Diamondbacks do not add another win after this matchup, then someone didn’t do their job right.
Mikolas was a surprise force in the Cardinals rotation in 2018 and except for a right elbow tendon surgery that forced him to miss a big chunk of 2021, the American pitched more than 200 innings in 3 of his 4 full seasons. That is durability, people, and it looks like Mikolas will do the same in 2024, but the question is whether he can rebound from a subpar 2023 season that saw him finish with a 4.78 ERA. The first outing was a rough one on Opening Day in Los Angeles, where he coughed up 2 homeruns and 5 runs, but he kept the Cardinals in line for the win in the following games against the Padres and Phillies, allowing 2 runs in each. You’d expect the Diamondbacks to knock in a couple of runs here too, but he’ll provide a tough matchup for our ace.
Zac allowed 3 runs in Denver despite mowing down 10 Rockies, but nothing to be worried about. He’ll continue to provide stellar pitching and seal our series sweep on Sunday.