We stay in the NL Central
Oh Mt. 500! How… mediocre it is, I guess. I wouldn’t say that this is a disappointing start to the year, but the fact that we have only won one series against a team not from Colorado is less than ideal. The biggest consolation is that one of those teams is only playing in the regular season because they have to before being given the NL East title, and the other team is the Yankees, who aren’t much less of a sure thing. The team from Arizona took care of business against the Cardinals, sending them to last place in their division.
We now face the team in second to last in the NL Central, but that says more about how competitive that division currently is, rather than the quality of team we be facing in the Cubs. Right now, four out of five NL Central teams would make the playoffs, the Cubs being one of them. Early days of course, but it’s not getting easier.
Game 1 — 4/15, 6:40PM: Merrill Kelly (2-0, 2.29 ERA/193 ERA+, 0.91 WHIP) vs. Ben Brown (0-0, 6.10 ERA/75 ERA+, 1.45 WHIP)
If you had told me that three games in, Kelly would have not pitched less than six innings in a single start, not given up more than two runs, and gave up a single home run in each of his first two games, but managed to avoid one during his start IN Colorado, I would have said… yeah most of that tracks except the home run part. No home runs in Denver is weird. It’s pretty much business as usual for Merrill the Mainstay so far. The strike outs are lower than normal, and he is out performing his FIP by a little over a run, so there are some signs that regression is probably coming, but nothing to be too worried about.
After joining the Cubs organization in a trade from the Phillies last year, Ben Brown joined the rotation out of Spring Training this year. His first start was rough. He only managed to pitch 1.2 innings of six run baseball against the Rangers, but has since settled in well. He held the Rockies to one run and shut out the Padres, over 4 and 4.2 innings respectively. Not long enough to get a decision, but the Cubs did win both games. One thing for the Diamondbacks to watch out for is the K. Even including his rough first start, he has a SO9 of 9.6.
Game 2 — 4/16, 6:40 PM: Tommy Henry (0-1, 5.79 ERA/77 ERA+, 1.64 WHIP) vs. Kyle Hendricks (0-2, 12.08 ERA/38 ERA+, 2.36 WHIP)
Much like Brown, Henry’s numbers are being inflated by a bad first start, but he’s settled in since then. That first start was against Colorado, and getting lit up by them isn’t a great look, but he held the Braves to just two runs over five innings. One of the big things holding him back right now are walks. A BB9 of 4.5 is not going to win you many games, or fifth starter competitions either. Neither will 1.9 HR9…
Wow, those are some very un-Kyle Hendricks numbers there. Hendricks had a couple of bad seasons in ‘21 and ‘22, due at least in part to injuries, but he bounced back in 2023 to the tune of a 123 ERA+. This year, not so much. He’s been torched by the Rangers, Dodgers, and Padres for five, five, and seven runs each. He’s given up 5 home runs in those games, and is giving up 18.5 hits per nine, more than double his normal rate. Either he is due for a bounce back, or he is due for a visit to whoever took over Dr. James Andrew’s practice.
Game 3 — 4/17, 12:40: Brandon Pfaadt (1-0, 6.48 ERA/69 ERA+, 1.38 WHIP) vs. Jordan Wicks (0-2, 5.68 ERA/80 ERA+, 1.89 WHIP)
When you see the pitchers that are following Kelly and Gallen in the rotation, it becomes less of a question of why are they only .500 and more how are they managing to be .500. That later sentiment becomes even stronger when you remember they are incapable of scoring a run after the fifth inning. Anyway, Brandon Pfaadt is not looking like a pitcher who was guaranteed the fourth spot in the rotation going into Spring Training. The long ball is back for him, and so are just about any other type of runs. Atlanta got him for five, St. Louis got him for six, and suddenly, the question of who E-Rod will replace in the rotation is a bit murkier.
Wicks only made it into the first inning once in his first three starts, but that and his high ERA doesn’t tell the entire story of his starts. His FIP is currently 3.3 runs lower than his ERA, in large part due to the Cubs committing three errors in the first three games behind him. Two of those errors leading to three unearned runs. It’s hard to pitch deep or effectively into games when your team is struggling that much behind you and giving away extra outs. However, he did give up four runs in four innings in his third start, and the Cubs committed no errors behind him, so time will tell.
Conclusion
The Cubs have been having better results than the Diamondbacks so far. I also think the Diamondbacks have a better shot at winning this series. Kelly vs. Brown seems like a slam dunk to me. Henry pitched decently in two of his starts, while Kendrick is… not. I think those peripherals of Wick’s will catch up to him and put him ahead of Pfaadt. Two out of three, with a chance at a sweep if Jordan Wicks pitches to his ERA instead of FIP.