The Diamondbacks are the better team.
First, let’s put this series in context. The Diamondbacks are the better team and my expectation is that the Diamondbacks will win three games in the four-game series against the Giants.
Why are the Diamondbacks the better team? A few comparisons (in games through 14 April) follow:
- Runs Scored per game (5.56 D-backs vs 4.31 Giants)
- Position Player Wins-Above-Average, WPA (+0.5 D-backs vs negative 0.2 Giants)
- Pitching: Runs Allowed Per Game (4.25 D-backs vs 5.06 Giants)
- Pitching WPA (+0.4 D-backs vs negative 0.3 Giants)
Giants batters are slumping. Their runs per game fell from 4.9 (first eight games) to 3.8 (second eight games).
Diamondbacks pitching will likely improve with the debut of Jordan Montgomery.
Worth watching is former Diamondback Nick Ahmed.
The Giants signed Ahmed to a minor league contract. This spring, Nick Ahmed and 22.5 year old Marco Luciano competed for the shortstop position. Nick Ahmed prevailed.
This season, how well did Nick Ahmed play for the Giants?
- Defense: Through 15 April, his defense was outstanding. He earned 2 DRS (ranking 6th best) and 4 OAA (three way tie for best shortstop defense in Majors).
- Offense: Through 15 April, his offense was below average with an OPS+ of 80. Six RBIs was the highlight.
- His Noteworthy Upswing. Recently (9-15 April), his OBP and SLG improved to .389 and .471. However the improvement is unsustainable based on a .500 BABIP (high) and 16.7 % Hard Hits (low).
Comparison with the Diamondbacks’ Shortstops. With Geraldo Perdomo on the IL, and with top prospect Jordan Lawlar in the minors on the IL, Blaze Alexander and Kevin Newman are in the spotlight. In the latest roundtable, my view was that Blaze Alexander was a hero for hitting well above his ZiPS projections in the latest week. His 3 RBIs in Thursday’s win over the Cubs added to my enthusiasm. A downside was Blaze Alexander’s defense at shortstop (negative 4 DRS and negative 6 OAA through 15 April).
I’m happy for Nick Ahmed’s continued success (except in this series). Let’s hope the Diamondbacks easily field his softly hit balls-in-play and Diamondbacks’ balls-in-play are just beyond his reach.
The Pitching Matchups.
Thursday 6:45 PM Arizona time, Ryne Nelson (83 ERA+). vs Logan Webb (109 ERA+).
Ryne Nelson’s last start was impressive. His clutch pitching in the sixth inning was reassuring. He pitched six innings with one earned run!
Logan Webb shares something in common with Zac Gallen. they each received one first place vote for the 2023 Cy Young award.
Logan Webb is likely the better pitcher; Advantage to the Giants.
Friday, 8:40 Arizona Time, Jordan Montgomary (Season Debut) vs Blake Snell (34 ERA+).
All season, I’ve been looking forward to this game. A Friday debut is the exact day that Jordan Montgomery was shooting for on 29 March.
“Uh, I think we’re shooting for [April] 19th [for my first start of the season]. So, I did everything I could to be prepared. Um, [before signing with the Diamondbacks] I had a feeling no team was going to let me just go out and throw five innings like I was prepared for. Um, so I got up to 75 pitches, five innings twice, and then did a little de-load week, to cruise into where I’m at now.”— Jordan Montgomery, March 29
In his latest start in the minors, Jordan Montgomery worked on his “feel” for his fastball.
Torey Lovullo said Jordan Montgomery’s next start will probably be in the majors after he threw 71 pitches for Reno last night.
Lovullo was not concerned with the 7 ER.
“He was trying to get a feel for (the fastball) and just kept going back to it.”
— Alex Weiner (@alexjweiner) April 14, 2024
Blake Snell won the 2023 NL Cy Young award. In his first two starts of the season, Blake Snell allowed 10 earned runs in 7 innings. Will he be limited to fourth innings? Will he continue to allow more than one earned run per inning?
Timing is important. At least for now, Jordan Montgomery is likely the better starter; Advantage to the Diamondbacks.
Saturday 1:05 Arizona Time, Zac Gallen (263 ERA+) vs TBA, perhaps Kyle Harrison (88 ERA+).
This season, Zac Gallen has two statistics worth noting.
- His 10.64 K/9 is his best since 2019. It is better than the starting pitcher he will face in this game.
- He has allowed zero home runs while facing 89 batters. Each of the other Diamondbacks’ starters have allowed 2 or 3 home runs.
Kyle Harrison is young (22 years old). He is known for striking out batters. However, this season his 7.4 K/9 fell short of the pre-season ZiPS projection of 10.7 K/9. Nevertheless, his K/9 was better than the 7.23 average starting pitcher on the Giants.
Zac Gallen is the better starter; Advantage to the Diamondbacks.
Sunday 1:05 Arizona Time, Merrill Kelly (197 ERA+) vs TBA, perhaps Jordan Hicks (264 ERA+).
With three quality starts, followed by a game with five innings and one earned run, Merrill Kelly is Mr. consistent. His consistency will give the Diamondbacks a great chance to win this game.
Jordan Hicks has been a reliever with two exceptions:
- In 2022, he started 8 games for the Cardinals with an average of 3.3 innings per game.
- In 2024, he started 3 games with an average of 6 innings per game.
This season, his 1.57 ERA is great. As a former reliever, how long can he continue that level of excellence as a starter before he hits a bump in the road?
“One of the bright spots of the season, however, has been Jordan Hicks’ transition from reliever to starting pitcher. I’ll admit I was skeptical of this signing, but so far it has proven to be one of the few bright spots what has been a dreary first couple of weeks of the season.” — Sami Higgins, SB Nation
Which type of pitcher will prevail? Will it be Mr consistent, or will it be the reliever transformed into a starter? My view is that in any specific game, either pitcher could pitch better for that specific game.