A struggling, depleted Braves team comes to town to face a reeling Diamondbacks team
The Diamondbacks are not looking great right now. They’re still two games better than they were at this point in 2024, but they come into the weekend having lost two straight series, and two straight games in heartbreaking fashion. The pitching has struggled, nearly across the board, the offense has been a let down in the biggest moments, and the defense has been lacking. Despite all this, they remain just three games behind the division leading Padres and would be the third Wild Card if the season ended today. Funny how the bigger picture sometimes puts things into perspective doesn’t it?
In the visitors dugout, you’ll find an example of what a truly disappointing start to the season looks like. The Braves were expected by all to waltz to the postseason, and the only question was which berth would they take. It has not shaped up that way to start. Not having Acuna Jr. and Spenser Strider to start the season, plus significant underperformance from those who are there have lead them to the third worst record in the NL, ahead of only the Pirates and the lowly Rockies. Maybe five minutes of looking at the NL East standings should be the punishment for any of us who get too worked up about only being 14-11 to start the season.
Game 1 – 4/25, 6:40 PM: Zac Gallen (1-3, 5.60 ERA, 73 ERA+, 1.42 WHIP) Vs. Chris Sale (0-4, 6.17 ERA, 66 ERA+, 1.62 WHIP)
If you could allow me a moment of analysis, I want to see if we can figure out the problem with Zac Gallen. 2022 and 2023 were by far his best seasons. He finished fifth and third respectively in the Cy Young voting and convinced all of us that there was no way we were going to be able to afford him in Free Agency. It’s hard to put my finger on exactly what changed, but in 2022, his best season, he had a WHIP of 0.91, meaning he gave up only 0.9 walks or hits per inning he pitched. This is very good. On the other hand, this season, his WHIP is 1.42, meaning almost 1.5 hits and walks per inning pitched. He should consider giving up fewer baserunners and he’ll probably have more success.
All of what I said above also applies to Sale this season. He has looked nothing like the Chris Sale that won the Cy Young Award just six months ago and has struggled in nearly every start this year. In five starts, he has yet to pitch past the fifth inning, and he has only given up fewer than three runs once. The key in this game will simply not being complacent. Sale is arguably one of the best pitchers of his generation, and the Diamondbacks need to approach this game with that not mindset, not expecting him to turn in another 4IP, 3 ER performance on his own
Game 2 – 4/26, 5:10 PM: Merrill Kelly (3-1, 4.73 ERA, 86 ERA+, 1.16 WHIP) vs. Grant Holmes (2-1, 3.22 ERA, 127 ERA+, 1.20 WHIP)
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before. Merrill Kelly, cursing through 5 2⁄3 innings. He’s only given up three baserunners, just a single earned run, and racked up five strike outs. Then he’s taken out because of cramps. At this point, this is one of the craziest medical mysteries I personally remember in sports. He told Todd Walsh later that he doesn’t see any way it could be hydration because “I have more electrolytes in me than anyone in this stadium on days I pitch” so the question becomes, what else could possibly be causing cramping this badly and this frequently. Someone call Dr. House.
Holmes is in his second season with Atlanta. His rookie season was split between the bullpen and the rotation. In his seven starts, he did well, only really getting light up once, and that was a five inning, five run start in Coors, so hardly can fault him for that one. Mixed results in four starts this season. On the one hand, he’s held opponents to a shocking .176 batting average. On the other hand, he has given up 14 walks in 21 1⁄3 innings. His FIP is a more than a full run higher than his ERA at 4.48, so definitely room for the Diamondbacks to help him regress a bit. Just have to be patient and let him put you on base, because he will.
Game 3 – Brandon Pfaadt (4-1, 2.73 ERA, 149 ERA+, 1.01 WHIP) vs. Spencer Schwellenbach (1-1, 2.56 ERA, 159 ERA+, 0.91 WHIP)
How about Brandon Pfaadt, am I right? Mike Hazen gave the kid a contract and he took it to a whole new level. Got off to a bit of a bumpy start, giving up seven runs in his first two starts/twelve innings. But in the three starts since, he’s only given up two earned runs in 17 2⁄3 innings. Most importantly, he only allowed one home run, the biggest boogey man of his career. In a season that has lacked certainty, he has been the closest thing to it so far.
Haven’t spent a lot of time following the Braves this season, but from my outsider’s prospective Spencer (yes we are on first name basis thanks for asking) has got to be one of the brighter spots. Toronto lit him up for six runs in 4 2⁄3 innings, but other than that, he’s been nearly untouchable, throwing two scoreless outings and the other two with no more than two earned runs. A strong start to his sophomore season, and he’s going to pose a big challenge to the Diamondbacks.
Conclusion
I won’t lie to you, this series feels like a trap. The Braves are a team that by all logic are far better than their record would suggest, and it looks like they might be catching the Diamondbacks at the right time. Game 1 should be a lock, but it all depends on which version of Gallen we get. I do actually feel confident in Game 2, and the only thing I’ll say about Game 3 is it will be one heck of a well pitched game. I’ll say that they take the series, but there will be much wailing and gnashing of teeth from some of us along the way.