The second half gets under way, with the draft and the wild-card race heating up.
Any thoughts on the D-backs draft, or did picking 29th rob you of all enthusiasm?
Wesley: In terms of this draft, compared to other teams, the Dbacks did well. Compared to other Dbacks draft? I’m not as much of a fan. I don’t think you can even grade this draft fairly until the signing deadline, and even then, we won’t have a good grasp of how good/bad it is until 2027/2028 at the earliest.
Makakilo: Three thoughts:
- Drafting Slade Caldwell was betting long odds. Perhaps encouraged by Corbin Carroll’s success, they hope Caldwell is another undersized player who will exceed all expectations. They could be correct; I’m optimistic that he will reach the Majors. Adding to the long odds, he was 18 years old and “one of the youngest players in the draft.”
- I’m most enthusiastic about drafting Ryan Waldschmidt (#31 in draft). As Steak85 wrote about in his AZ Snake Pit article, moving him to first base may be a winning move for his success. Also, I like that he is an excellent student (made the Dean’s list).
- Keith Law wrote that both of these players were “top-15 talents.” It’s easy to be enthusiastic when the Diamondbacks grabbed them picking at 29 and 31!
James: Selecting #29 for the first pick certainly dampened my excitement. The overall quality of the draft also served to dampen excitement. I think the team’s best pick was likely their second selection, Ryan Waldschmidt. The team can thank Corbin Carroll’s fine 2023 performance for that pick.
Spencer: I feel a little let down honestly. Caldwell is all ceiling and no real floor but does give Varsho and Carroll vibes so hopefully the development staff can help him reach that ceiling. Waldschmidt is a draft riser which always worries me, but he was hampered by injuries in college so maybe that’s no so bad this year? The rest is whatever for now. I toggle between a B-/C+ grade for now with a lot of upside to make it very good long term. Unfortunately the opposite is also very true/likely…
DBacksEurope: Personally, I was less invested in this year’s draft. The draft is not something I am normally excited about, but I do tend to follow MLB Pipeline and the top draft rankings. I had to quit my Dynasty Fantasy teams because of a lack of time and the D-Backs picking this low all amounted to a lack of interest this year.
James: I feel like Law was being optimistic. That said, I also think nabbing Waldschmidt at #31 ws a steal. Taking Caldwell ar #29 seemed like a foregone conclusion, especially given who else was still on the board.
Ben: I’m with Wes, it’s so difficult to review a draft this soon afterwards. I do think it’s interesting to see more of a balance between HS/Prep players and college players this year compared to last where Hazen and Co took almost exclusively college players. The MLB draft is unique though – you can’t select players based on current needs because of the development timeline that so many players have. Honestly, Wes’ timeline of 2027/28 could be somewhat optimistic depending on how ready some of those college players are.
How should the D-backs approach the trade deadline?
Wesley: FIRESALE. I WANT CHAOS. Or for them to do nothing.
Makakilo: Three principles:
- Eschew any trades that damages chances for the playoffs this season.
- Avoid stars. Instead look to players who improve a weak point on the Diamondbacks.
- Look for synergies. Explore trades that acquire players who are more valuable as Diamondbacks because of synergies with the existing players. For example, a relief pitcher who would benefit from excellent defense.
Spencer: Tepidly buy and feel out what bigger deals might be available in the winter. There’s no sense in advocating selling currently (which could easily change in the next 10 days), but we have so many injuries that buying isn’t really necessary either.
Justin: I would say cautious buyers. We are still in it, obviously, but next year would bring back the same team-minus Christian Walker. Next year might be what we were looking at this year to potentially be with a relatively healthy rotation.
DBacksEurope: Well, maybe if the team can get Washington Nationals hot this year we might sneak into the playoffs again and we don’t need that much of an upgrade. Starting pitching will be hard to get and we have half a rotation on the shelf, so I don’t see us going crazy for that. Hazen will probably be cautious.
James: Avoid any big shake-ups while prioritizing the bullpen. Another lefty for the bullpen needs to be the priority, but another reliable bullpen arm in general is still needed. Don’t pay big for a rental. Try to avoid long odds in the trade market. This team needs reinforcements, but I would rather see the team stand pat, doing nothing, than making a bad trade.
Ben: I’m with Hazen: the team is in a pretty good spot overall. If all of the injured pitchers return, the rotation looks quite strong on paper and the bullpen has some higher leverage arms. That’s assuming health, which is a faulty assumption this year, and which can change in an instant. With that in mind, there’s not a ton of additions that I think are really required (see my answer below), but emotionally I have less faith in this roster than I did last year. They’re more than capable of playing their way into a final wild card spot and maybe going on a run akin to last year, but it’s hard to foresee that based on how they’ve played through their first 100 games. Personally, I’d rather at least see what they can get for pending free agents like Christian Walker, Paul Sewald, and even Joc Pederson. The alternative is qualifying offers to the first two and a team option for the latter, which would only net them a couple compensation picks in next year’s draft. I don’t know if anyone would give up a player that would rank more highly than that, but that’s why I’m not a major league GM!
What one position do you want to see them strengthen?
Wesley: The bullpen and outfield. The bullpen is always a weakness, and the outfield is definitely a step down from last year in terms of performance.
Makakilo: In the last roundtable, Jim wrote he was concerned about Sewald.
“I share Makakilo’s concern, but I’m also worried about Paul Sewald, whose FIP has been significantly higher than his ERA (4.57 vs. 3.30). We’ve seen what can happen with him, and worry that, if there are further problems, Torey Lovullo will take too long to make a change. That’s something we can ill afford in what looks likely to be a very close wild-card race, where every win is potentially crucial..” – Jim, 15 July AZ Snake Pit Round Table.
Expanding on Jim’s concern, another statistic (in addition to FIP) that worries me is his .200 BABIP. It may be unsustainably low (it may increase). Therefore, I’d like the Diamondbacks to add a second closer. Having two excellent closers would be a good situation.
The hard part is choosing which pitcher to acquire. Last week, a FanGraphs writer passed on the following wisdom:
“Second, there will be a ton of established guys available in the next tier down – setup men or committee closers. That’s where I’d hope to shop; the sheer volume of them should keep prices reasonable, and the variety of styles in that group means that teams can target pitchers who match their style. Outside of Scott, Andrew Chafin is the best lefty, so he likely will command a bit of a premium; after him there are a ton of acceptable options.” – Ben Clemens, July 16, 2024
Looking at the big picture, my view of what Mike Hazen said (on 19 July) is that he wants to either add to the bullpen or add a position player who fits, unless in the next week he decides that the team has a greater need for starting pitching and he discovers he can trade for a pitcher with control beyond this season. Two quotes follow:
- “I’d love to be able to target down the needs to bullpen, position-player fit somewhere, and just go with that. That would be great. I don’t know if we’re going to just be afforded that opportunity.” – Mike Hazen, 19 July
- “Long-term starting pitching is still going to be something I’m going to explore no matter what if it’s multiple years of control because I feel like we have to. We always have to look out for our rotation a couple of years down the line. I think if I feel very confident when Monty comes back and then [Kelly and Rodriguez] are right around the corner, I probably would not place as much emphasis on it. But I don’t know. It obviously depends on if Nelly and Yilber keep throwing the ball really well, that’s going to impact how this goes.” – Mike Hazen, 19 July
Spencer: I don’t think the team can afford another closer caliber arm this year unless the other team values prospects differently and/or Hazen isn’t expecting to compete when Gallen leaves in free agency (plus it slipped my attention recently when Hazen said Cecconi is now a full time reliever!). So…. a meh bullpen lefty and maybe a middle infielder who can push (or replace a traded) Blaze down the depth chart?
DBacksEurope: Starting pitching will be hard to get so I am with Spencer here.
Justin: I was going to say lefty, but I like the idea of a depth middle infielder as well.
James: A reliable bullpen lefty would be nice. Failing that, another reliable bullpen arm for the 6th and 7th, in addition to adding Cecconi to that same role.
Ben: Every team would like additional bullpen depth and the D-Backs are no exception. There has to be better bullpen alternatives than the Humberto Castellanos, Thyago Vieira tier that could be acquired for a reasonable price. I would echo the outfield as well, but it’s tough to evaluate considering the regression in performance from seemingly the entire Arizona outfield with the exception of Jake McCarthy.
Next weekend, the D-backs induct Gonzo and The Big Unit into their Hall of Fame. Who should be the first member of the team’s Hall of SHAME?
Wesley: Russ Ortiz and Yasmany Tomas, the worst pitcher and hitter respectively in team history.
Justin: Oh, if DC were around still he would love that response…. (/s)
Makakilo. In recent history (the last 5 years), Madison Bumgarner. He accumulated a negative 0.4 bWAR with the Diamondbacks. The dark side is that the Diamondbacks paid him about $85 Million, which was a significant amount of salary for the Diamondbacks.
A summary of other candidates (with links to an article about each candidate) is in this AZ Snake Pit article.
Spencer: Through little enough fault of his own, Shelby Miller. But the true first inductees of the Hall of Shame are Tony La Russa and Dave Stewart for their absolutely horrible mishandling of the franchise. They lost the team Goldy with their decisions and it took about 4-6 years of Hazen to fix their legacy…
DBacksEurope: I think Spencer’s answer is probably the best one. Russ Ortiz might be one of the worst, but he pitched less than 10 games. That would make so many players eligible for the Hall of Shame. Bumgarner, Tomas are most likely attached to big contracts, which also heavily influences the perception about their performance. I’d look at what a player has done an entire year long. Shelby Miller was terrible in his first season and he pitched a full season. Montgomery is on the same track as Shelby Miller. They could be good members of the Hall of Shame, but the failure of both players is a signal of the failure of a front office. Hence, La Russa and Stewart are the best nominees for a Hall of Shame. Mike Hazen is saved by his draftees and a few fine pickups (Walker, Kelly) and a few trades (Gallen, Moreno), but based on most other transactions, especially free agent signings, he could be a good nomination for the Hall of Shame as well. Weird conclusion, right?
Justin: Actually, DBE Ortiz started 22 games in 2005 and then 6 in 2006. He had a 7.00 ERA, ERA+ of 64, a FIP of 6.06 and a WHIP at 1.896 in 137 innings (28 starts) in his time here.
Jim and Wes are the only ones left who will remember the acronym, but we would say BOND. Bad Ortiz No Donut
(*Edit: Hey now, I’m still around and was also around in the Russ Ortiz days. – James)
DBacksEurope: Then Ortiz might be a good addition after all although I will still stick to my nomination of front office members. Thanks, Justin.
James: I seem to be in agreement with most others. Russ Ortiz and Tony La Russa are the two names that first popped to mind. Shelby Miller, Yasmany Tomas, and Madison Bumgarner all quickly followed. Really, if front office personnel are not included, it comes down to a race between Ortiz and Tomas. Maybe just take both and designate each as being first, one for players and one for pitchers.
Ben: I think my recency bias would lean toward MadBum because of the combination of salary owed him and the complete lack of production, but there are definitely other candidates. After doing a more systematic approach, I have to admit that David Delluci deserves a shout out if for no other reason than appearing in over 500 games and posting an exact 0.0 bWAR is impressive.
Jim: In terms of impact in a short time, I would like to nominate Jason Grimsley, who appeared in only 19 games, but then had his house raided by the Feds, looking for evidence that he was distributing HGH and other performance-enhancing drugs. I think he’s the closest the D-backs have come to having an active player suspended for PED use, though he had actually been released by Arizona a few days before the ban was announced. There’s also Mike Difelice, a catcher who appeared 12 times in 2001, before being arrested in Pittsburgh on charges he assaulted two women and punched a parking attendant. and was subsequently released by Arizona.
Who are Arizona’s biggest competitors for a wild-card spot?
Wesley: Themselves. If they don’t trip over their own feet on the way, they stand a good chance at sneaking into the playoffs again.
Makakilo: It will be September before the race is better defined, including which teams are on the cutting edge of reaching the playoffs. More thoughts follow.
NL competitors that the Diamondbacks play against in the rest of the season are the Padres, Mets, and the Pirates (who currently have more wins than I expected). “To reach the playoffs, two imperatives are consistent offense and winning the series against the Padres and the Mets [and the Pirates].” — Makakilo, 15 July Roundtable
The following table shows my view of the NL Wild Card Race. It shows projected team wins at the end of the season. Note that of the teams in the table, the Pirates have the toughest remaining schedule strength per the Tankathon website.
In addition, in the rest of the season, the Diamondbacks play four series against the Rockies and the Giants. Those teams are NOT competitors, but sweeping one or two of those four series (and winning the other series) would be extra wins that count.
Spencer: Every team left on the schedule?
DBacksEurope: Obviously the ones they are battling with right now, but I’d focus on the Padres. They have a couple of notable absences, if those players return they are likely to become one of the fiercest competitors again.
Justin: Ask me in a couple weeks.
James: Ask me after the deadline is the first thought that comes to mind. However, if I were to guess today, I would say the Mets and the Padres, as they both have games remaining against the Diamondbacks, allowing them to hurt Arizona directly, instead of just passively. I still fully expect the Pirates to collapse down the stretch.
Ben: Given the struggles this team has had with consistency and the mind-boggling number of teams that are still technically in contention, it has to basically be the rest of the NL. If we take a look at the playoff odds from BR, I think they’re overestimating the Mets somewhat considering the remaining seven matchups they have against Atlanta and Philadelphia respectively. By process of elimination then, I’d focus on the Cardinals and Padres, but the D-Backs are firmly in control of their destiny based on their recent uptick in performance.
You have to sing the National Anthem at the All-Star Game. How do you approach it?
Wesley: Nothing fancy. I’d just sing it without going crazy with it. I feel like when singers *try* to impress with the Anthem it almost always ends up being bad.
Makakilo: My approach would be to use a computer-generated voice, where all I have to do is hit the start button and put my hand over my heart. My plan B would be to read the words in my normal voice (perhaps with dramatic tones) instead of singing.
DBacksEurope: I’d reject singing that star spangled banner of yours because that song seems impossible to sing right. If I cannot reject, I’d probably set in real low so I don’t need to reach those high tones and probably put some house music below it so my vocals don’t get to be too important. I love Chris Stapleton’s performance at the Super Bowl. He stayed true to his style while getting the tones perfect.
James: I would try to get out of it. If I couldn’t I would probably take the same route that Richard Harris did when he played King Arthur in Camelot – melodic (but spoken) recitation at its best.
Ben: I think I’d approach it with a kazoo. Even if it’s not perfect, it comes off as kitschy and endearing rather than the drunken mess we got at the ASG.