Another wobbly week, as Arizona sinks further below .500.
Are the D-backs in trouble?
Sam: You could say their backs are against the wall a bit. They have ample opportunity to get back into a groove and the wildcard picture, but each series loss gives them a bit more ground to make up.
Spencer: Yes. They look lost and frankly more like 2021 than I care to admit to myself.
Wesley: Despite of my laissez-faire attitude, I’m starting to get concerned. It’s not the W/L that concerns me, its the mounting injuries to key players, and the lack of depth that has been really exposed. i think the team isn’t completely out of it yet, but if they’re significantly under .500 at the end of May, they may have dug a hole that they no longer can get out of. There is hope though, once some of the key players come of the IL I would hope they can turn it around and start winning again.
Makakilo: The Diamondbacks are at a tipping point of exactly equal: In games through Saturday, their batters scored 4.82 runs per game, and their pitchers allowed 4.82 runs per game. I’m confident that pitching will improve and confident that batting will improve. When that happens, equality will strongly tip to winning.
My plan to avoid trouble:
May: Stop digging the hole bigger: runs scored equals runs allowed.
June: Team returns to nearly full strength: equality strongly tips towards winning games.
July 31: Reach top of mount 500.
August/September: Compete for a wild-card entry to the playoffs.
Dano: Yes.
Jeffern51: Yes the Dbacks are in trouble. Trouble can still be avoided if they get on a hot streak, but based on how disjointed this team has looked due to injuries and underperformance such a run is getting harder and harder to envision.
Steven: The health can get better, hitters and pitchers can get hot, but the mental mistakes I’m seeing on a game to game basis scare me more than any slump or IL stint. Combine that with a bullpen that is becoming one of the most unwatchable groups in the last couple of years and it’s a recipe for disaster that I don’t see a way out unless you start making moves now. Hazen and Kendrick have already spent a bunch on this team, will they invest even more or will we see a Jordan Montgomery trade to free up salary space?
Ben: I think it depends on how we’re defining “trouble,” but it’s hard to argue they aren’t regardless. If we’re looking at it based on making it to the postseason, which was certainly the goal at the start of the season, then it becomes even more difficult to argue against. The D-Backs now have just a 3.2% likelihood of making the postseason from Baseball Reference and a surprising 24.4% from FanGraphs. I’m with Steven though – the lack of execution and mental errors are more concerning than the record. I have seen multiple small baserunning mistakes (in addition to the plentiful large baserunning mistakes) that have prevented runs from scoring. Then there’s the poor defense that has been discussed ad nauseam. It combines for some extremely lackluster watching – and results.
What aspect of the team most concerns you?
Sam: The bullpen. They sucked last year until September/October and then Hazen didn’t even try to improve it despite greater financial flexibility from Kendrick, rolling with basically the same group as last year. I just don’t see much reason to be optimistic for this unit to improve — even once Sewald returns, we will still have at least 2-3 guys we will dread seeing come into the game in the 5th, 6th or 10th inning. Sewald was so expensive to trade for I’m not sure I want to see another upgrade like that, and scrap heap finds like Thompson are so rare you can’t expect them to happen again.
Spencer: Second the bullpen.
Wesley: The bullpen is a real area of concern, but i’d say the injuries overall are my biggest concern. They are one more injury away from this truly being a lost season.
Dano: The offense. We have managed twelve runs in the last six games. Nobody aside from Christian Walker is putting up anything like consistently decent ABs. There doesn’t seem to be any reason to believe it’s going to improve anytime soon.
Jeffern51: The offense concerns me the most. You can get really into all of the numbers, but from a high level there is a flat out lack of execution. Their situational performance is terrible. How many times do guys get on base to lead off an inning and then the next batter grounds into a double play? How many times do runners get into scoring position and then the next batter swings at the first pitch and pops up. I hate to say it but without the borderline MVP version of Corbin Carroll this offense doesn’t make as much sense. Case in point is today’s lineup. Pavin Smith does not bat in the 3 hole on a competitive team period.
Makakilo: Shortstop. Let’s look at defense, batting, and baserunning (Baseball Savant & The Fielding Bible).
Shortstop Defense:
- Negative 4 OAA, ranking 27th in the Majors.
- Negative 6 DRS, ranking 28/29th in the Majors.
Shortstop Batting:
- 87.0 MPH Average Exit Velocity, ranking 21st in the Majors.
- .336 SLG, ranking 22nd in the Majors.
- .270 OBP, ranking 24th in the Majors.
- .274 wOBA, ranking 25th in the Majors.
Shortstop Baserunning:
- Blaze Alexander, 6 extra base advances with 20 opportunities (7 D-backs seem better), 1 stolen base in 2 attempts.
- Kevin Newman, 1 extra base advance with 3 opportunities (small sample).
Steven: Corbin Carroll looks all-around atrocious and at some point the team will need to decide whether he’s hiding an injury that can describe his poor performance, or if he is healthy, whether a trip to Reno is needed. A slump is a two-three week thing. We’re now getting into future red-flag performance territory.
Ben: I have to third the offense. They’re stuck in the middle of plenty of offensive categories as a team and in the bottom third of several others – and that’s with Ketel Marte putting up near-MVP numbers in the early going. I shudder to think where the team would be without him. Even beyond the numbers though, the eye test shows you that they’re not executing the way they need to be and the plan of leaning on more power has not paid off to this point because their on-base skills have taken a step back compared to last year.
Conversely, why do you feel hopeful?
Sam: Well, I picked this up at the grocery store today:
A home series against the Padres also happens to have been the point in August 2023 when they broke their 9-game losing streak and turned their season back around…
Spencer: Taking from Sam’s lead, I recently learned about a job opportunity I can pursue in the next few years that sounds pretty perfect for me.
Wesley: I am hopeful largely because we went through this last season. There were some long stretches of the team being mediocre to God awful, and they managed to turn it around. Before the season even began, I warned about the first month or so was likely to be awful, largely because of the injuries in Spring training. As long as they can tread water and stay close to .500 until all the guys start coming off the IL, there’s hope for now.
Dano: Mainly because it’s a long season, and I genuinely believe that our roster is really too good to remain this bad for that much longer. Also, some of our missing pieces are due back off the IL soonish, and I am hopeful that their reintroduction back into the swing of things will alter the current trajectory, hopefully for the better.
Jeffern51: I feel hopeful because we have seen this team do this before. Last season their stretch in July was pretty comparable. Its just the fact that this stretch is at the beginning of the season is why the concern level is so magnified.
Makakilo: Many players will be returning from injuries.
- This week we could see the returns of Paul Sewald (oblique strain), Ryne Nelson (elbow contusion), and Alek Thomas (hamstring strain). [Update: Ryne Nelson pitched Sunday.]
- Geraldo Perdomo will return from meniscus tear surgery at the critical shortstop position. Assuming a 6-8 week recovery, he will return between 21 May and 4 June.
- By the All-Star break, my hope is we will see the return of Merrill Kelly (shoulder strain) and Eduardo Rodriguez (lat strain).
Steven: They’ve shown they can perform at least? I dunno. It’s not looking pretty.
Ben: I think it’s a matter of simple regression to the mean and becoming more healthy. There are plenty of candidates for bounceback performances to say the least and I’m hoping that players are able to get some momentum together once they return from the IL. But I’ll also admit that those hopes are pretty thin at the moment.
Which injured player are we missing most?
Sam: Merrill Kelly, by far. He has been such a consistent top of the rotation guy for us, and had been pitching well this year before he went down. Injuries also hurt when stacked — with ERod out (and to a lesser extent without Drey Jameson and Ryne Nelson), the effective replacement for Kelly in the rotation has been that much lower in the pecking order.
Spencer: Perdomo. I think he’s a quiet leader and his presence in the lineup is causing issues. Even when he’s in a slump he sees lots of pitches and understands what the team needs from him in a way I don’t see from anyone playing currently.
Wesley: I’m going to have to agree with Spencer here, Perdomo’s defense was a stabilizing force for the whole team, and it’s obvious now that we took his offense for granted too. I think Sewald’s absence is also the most notable, and it subsequently pushes arms into roles that they are probably not well suited for.
Dano: In the longer term, I suspect that Sam is right, but given that we haven’t been missing Merrill for that long yet, we really don’t know, as we haven’t felt the full impact. So I’m going to provisionally agree with Wes and Spencer. Perdomo. It will be good to have him back, whenever that happens.
Jeffern51: I want to say Sewald, but based off my previous answers im also going to have to say Perdomo because of the offense. It is hard to quantify, but Perdomo was a spark to this offense and was at the center of so many rallies last season. Not to mention his stabilizing presence on the defense. Blaze has just been too inconsistent to lead a big league defense. I will also be looking closely at Alek Thomas coming back and moving Carroll back to a corner spot. Centerfield is a demanding position mentally and physically and it is entirely possible that less defensive stress and him just focusing on offense could be a good thing.
Steven: Sewald just by default. Allowing all those guys to get back into natural roles will improve the group and get rid of the replacement level garbage Torey has to use.
Makakilo: A few thoughts:
- You can never have enough starting pitching. Merrill Kelly and Eduardo Rodriguez.
- Shortstop is the keystone to an excellent defense. Geraldo Perdomo.
- Center fielders impact more plays than corner outfielders. Alek Thomas
Ben: I think Sewald makes the most sense given how bad the bullpen has looked during this particularly rough stretch, but Zac Gallen would be a close second. He’s been such a mainstay and has been the “stopper” at various times while Sewald gives consistency and “roles” to the rest of the bullpen. I hate to be the contrarian, but I don’t think Perdomo is missed as much as these two and others. Almost all of Perdomo’s value last year came at the plate and even that was extremely inconsistent throughout the season. Obviously, I have no idea what kind of presence he brings to the team or dugout, but I don’t view him as much of a missing cog as other players.
Which other MLB team has been the biggest surprise (good or bad)?
Sam: The Astros. 7 straight ALCS appearances and they go out and start 7-19? Yes, they’ve had a good week since then (it’s always nice to play the Rockies), but it’ll take more than that to get them back into contention.
Spencer: Oakland. They’ve been playing very well since opening week. It would’ve been Houston for me but they’ve done what Arizona cannot and have started turning their season around this week.
Wesley: Kansas City Royals. Not really a surprise to me, but I think the league has been surprised by how good they’ve been. I’m pleased that my predictions as far as they go has been accurate.
Dano: Miami for me, I think. They were a playoff team last year, and while they didn’t do much to improve in the offseason, they didn’t lose a lot either, I don’t think, in the way of talent. But oh my, what has happened to them in 2024? It’s kind of hilarious.
Jeffern51: Astros. That franchise has really been the picture of consistency and they aren’t looking like the same team.
Makakilo: Padres. After going all-in to win for two seasons in a row, in the offseason they reduced their payroll to avoid luxury tax penalties. I expected a rebuilding season. Their recent acquisition of Luis Arraez made me rethink. They may be pausing instead of rebuilding. If the season ended Sunday morning, the Padres would be a wild-card team in the playoffs. That is surprising!
Ben: I have to go with the Astros as well. Not only have they been incredibly consistent on the field, but they’ve been extremely savvy with their free agent signings in this competitive window. Until recently, they had picked up players that filled roster holes or were bounceback candidates. But now, they’re picking up guys who no longer fit that mold and it’s really beginning to bite them – Jose Abreu and Josh Hader being the most recent, egregious examples.
In 40 years, your grandkids ask you about the COVID epidemic. How will you answer?
Sam: It was a crazy time, and I’ve got some fun stories to tell. When the pandemic hit, I was just visiting Singapore for a couple weeks, which turned into six months as my wife and I shared a twin bed in her parents’ place, taking shifts as I went nocturnal.
Then there were my two 2-week quarantines as I went back and forth — the first being more or less voluntary in the US as I didn’t even open my apartment door for two weeks, working my way through our 6-month-old stash of Soylent and Costco snacks, and the second being definitely mandatory as I stayed in a hotel room in Singapore for two weeks, with meals dropped off on the door handle three times a day, on my way back. They keep the hotels here so air conditioned that I forgot how warm it actually is here!
Spencer: Firstly, shocked that someone convinced me having kids wasn’t a waste of my time! But assuming it’s a grander “grandchild,” I’ll be explaining what civil servant life was like working alongside a bunch of deniers.
Wesley: I have zero interest in having children, so I’d be shocked too. I don’t know if I’d really have a short explanation of everything that happened that lead to the pandemic in the first place.
Dano: I will not have kids, much less grandkids, but who knows, I might still be teaching 40 years from now (not), so I’ll choose that as an alternate frame of reference. And if the kiddos ask, I will ask them if they really want to know. And if they do, I will tell them the unvarnished truth of everything that I remember…the fear, the anger, the gross federal malfeasance before 2021 and my anger at that, the news reports and the images of freezer trucks filling up outside hospitals in Brooklyn, the idiots who attended the Sturgis motorcycle rally en masse and drove more COVID home with them when they left, the crank “remedies” of anti-malarial drugs, bleach injections, toxic mudbaths, livestock deworming medicines, etc. The casualty numbers and the daily infection data that was being run in local newspapers across the nation for months. The crazy denier narratives that emerged, the more or less simultaneous beatification and demonification of the CDC and Anthony Fauci. My own experiences with learning how and when to shop for groceries in person without exposing myself to what I felt was an undue risk of dying, how I wept as I pulled up at the U of A vaccination site to get my first vaccine shot, the years it’s taken to unlearn the self-protective fear that I learned very early, the ways I still haven’t unlearned that, and likely never will, even forty years down the line.
You know, stuff like that. Good times.
DBacksEurope: I will never forget that I read about how there was a problem in Atalanta in Italy, where it all “began” here in Europe and their football team had just played a European cup game in Milan against Valencia, from Spain, with lots of fans travelling. I said to my wife: “it will reach us within no time now” and “maybe you should tell your dad he shouldn’t frequent bars anymore”, because her dad has bad lungs. I was called I don’t know how many names by my wife and who was I to tell her what anyone should or should not do. A few weeks later we were in lockdown and her dad was at the IC. He survived though, just nearly escaped. COVID-period was terrible, because all of a sudden clients thought that IT-consultancy was working around the clock 7 days per week. I have never been that close to my wife and kids physically for such a long time without seeing them, so I quit my job during COVID and waited a few months out. With all the travelling restrictions here I couldn’t see my parents for 2.5 years. F*** that wasted time of my life. My kids enjoyed the time, by the way. Thank goodness we have only experienced one COVID-related death in my and my wife’s family.
Jeffern51: COVID changed so much of our society in so many ways. People really got used to being introverted and it has changed the social fabric. People go to work, come home and turn on Netflix, and are satisfied with digital interaction. Companies realized the benefits of employees working remotely and not having to pay for commercial real estate and now people can just be as introverted as they would like. It changed the way people coexist.
Makakilo: Several things surprised me.
- Before it happened, only in science fiction movies did I imagine everyone wearing masks.
- While many people proudly talked about getting COVID vaccines, a lot of people chose not to have COVID vaccines. A person in my Blue Zone walking group, who was over 65 years old, chose not to have any COVID vaccines. He caught COVID and he never returned to the Blue Zone walks. Second-hand, I heard he is alive but does not leave his apartment.
- I wore a mask when I was walking in downtown Phoenix near Chase Field. A woman initiated a verbal attack to inform me that masks do not work and I should not wear one because it increases my carbon dioxide. Silently, I increased my pace to get away from her.
- With much joy, I remember driving on a nearly empty Oahu freeway during the peak of COVID.
Ben: My wife and I still have our collection of homemade cloth facemasks that used to hang on our front door for much of the pandemic. We’ve discussed donating or getting rid of them, but they act as a fascinating time capsule of that period. It’s difficult to describe to someone who wasn’t there in a lot of ways. For example, how do you explain the idea of disinfecting and wiping down groceries to someone who wasn’t around to experience the hysteria and panic that people had at the time? We can also tell them about the crazy theories that people used to try and deny the situation too. Overall, it was an anxiety-driven period that fractured parts of our society in ways that won’t be fully resolved for years if not decades from now.