Plus our panelists discuss the ASG and our least favorite animals
Another week, another Tommy John (plus a consultation). Who’s to blame? Is there someone to blame?
DBacksEurope: In general I don’t think you can blame anyone for a pitching injury and even less for blowing your arm out unless it is coaches requesting too much from players. It’s very disappointing though, especially when it happens to your “best” players. With Martinez they might have waited too long, Burnes already dodged one bullet a couple of weeks ago but couldn’t avoid it now, with Puk it’s looking worse and I think Montes de Oca is waiting to hear bad news as well. Maybe the club is waiting too long to make a decision by rehabbing pitchers and delaying the inevitable. It also feels like pitching injuries are a plague all over MLB and the Diamondbacks certainly are above the mean as it looks now. That gives a bad taste but, again, I don’t blame the club and just see it as bad luck.
Spencer: It’s probably unfair to blame someone as DBE says. But the fact Kaplan was brought in supposedly as a health expert makes him easy fodder right now. We didn’t have these issues under Stromm. They’ve bubbled into existence in 2025. I doubt he’s actually at fault. But he seems to be phenomenal at getting the worst out of his coachees.
Makakilo: Three things might have contributed to pitcher injuries of the Diamondbacks.
- Did the Diamondbacks (unintentionally) acquire pitchers with above average risk?
- Did their pitch mixes and velocities increase their risk? Jack Sommers’ article included insightful graphs on increased use of sliders and cutters and increased velocities.
- Did the team fail to recognize trends that give warning that a pitcher needs to back off? A study suggested that by monitoring 15-game trends in several pitch characteristics, teams could “intervene nonoperatively before catastrophic UCL injury.”
Burnes’ eleven 2025 games. Although my expertise in injury prevention is near zero, looking backwards I failed to see a clear warning trend in those games. He pitched a higher percentage of curves in games 5, 7, 9, 11. On 21 May (game 9) his average velocity dipped for 2-seam FBs and sliders (a warning sign if it had been a trend). Data from Baseball Savant.
Justin: I like Spencer’s answer.
1AZfan1: I feel TJ is just the cost of doing business nowadays. I feel we were pretty light on TJ compared to the league the last couple years, this year is heavy which probably puts us right around average over the last several years.
Ben: I don’t think there’s anyone to blame other than the entire baseball industry encouraging players to throw harder and harder with ever-increasing amounts of movement on their pitches. I understand that as humans we want to blame a specific source for something bad happening, but there isn’t anything like that for this situation. The unfortunate reality is that this type of injury is a seemingly inevitable cost to the kinds of pitches and pitchers that are being selected in the contemporary big leagues. I’m intrigued by the NIH study Makakilo cited and I’m hopeful that improved biometric technology might help us spot warning points earlier, but unless the culture shifts around pitch movement and velocity, I don’t see there being many changes.
Dan Bickley had an article suggesting that these injuries might reset the team to their 2023 default. Something to this, or is it just copium?
DBacksEurope: The article mentions the word “improbable”: “What if these untimely injuries have reduced the Diamondbacks to what they were in 2023, an upstart defiant team that made an improbable run to the World Series?” On the one hand, the Rangers won without their ace DeGrom so that gives hope, but on the other hand our appearance was pretty much embarrassing (and improbable) in that World Series, so I hope we don’t think that being like 2023 is enough. Maybe DeSclafani becomes our Buchholz and all is well, but one good week of pitching after several weeks of hell shouldn’t brainwash our brain to forget about the problematic bullpen and underperforming star pitchers.
Spencer: Given the source, I’m inclined to say copium. But there is something to be said for getting back to the team Hazen designed without Kendrick’s overbearing influence. I’m a fan; I’ll grasp at whatever straws I can to find a recipe for success.
Makakilo: One phrase stood out: “..what’s left in Arizona might be stronger than the team that broke camp….”
Three points follow:
- I appreciate his article’s overall optimism.
- My preseason opinion was that the team could make the playoffs with league average pitching. Although Diamondbacks’ allowed OBP, SLG, and wOBA ranked them between 22nd best and 25th best, improvement to league average is not impossible.
- On the other hand, saying the team is better without Burnes, Martinez, Walston, Puk, Mena, Montgomery, Montes De Oca… crosses from optimism into absurdity. “What if the injuries restored this team to its natural state, with the vibe and soul they were meant to possess all along?” Yes, intangibles can make a difference, but Torey Lovullo and his coaches excel at vibe and soul. The Diamondbacks lost very talented pitchers. These pitchers were not clubhouse pariahs and these pitchers are more than depth pitchers (despite that I am thinking of one exception). Their loss made the team worse than the team that broke camp.
Justin: I don’t really think so. The 2023 team was..different. Or somehow felt different?
1AZfan1: It’s a fun spin for an article, but really, none of us expected a World Series run by that 2023 team. I was at that Game 2 win in Dodger Stadium, and on my way out to the parking lot, I was fully expecting a Game 5 to be right back there and if I wanted to chance going to that game and risk watching my beloved Snakes get eliminated. Fortunately, that didn’t happen, and we enjoyed rooting for a team that was hot at the right moment to take down teams with more talent but were not playing at their full potential. For instance, has there been a 3 game stretch for the Dodgers since then where Mookie and Freddie have combined for only a single infield hit? That 2023 team got hot, especially the bullpen, at the exact right moment. The 2024 team was hot post-ASB, but cooled off and fell short of the playoffs. This 2025 team? Jury is out, of course, but the team still has enough talent to catch fire for a prolonged stretch. In that sense, yes, this team is much like 2023 (and 2024): flawed but dangerous.
Ben: I’m not sure how to feel about this one. On one hand, the offense for this year’s version is worlds better than it was in 2023. It’s easy to forget, but on the season they were just below-average in the National League and got absurdly hot at the right time. This year, they’re one of the best offenses in the league and are probably more consistent than their predecessors. The biggest differences between the two teams right now lays in their pitching and defense. In 2023, they were just about league-average as an overall pitching staff, but they were pulled down by a below-average bullpen. This year, they’ve actually gotten decent contributions from their starting rotation while the bullpen has been decimated by injuries and have thus been one of the worst units in the league. Frustratingly, the defense has been abysmal – as anyone who has watched this team at all. That could be a killer in both their chase for a postseason spot as well as any playoff games if they made it. With all of that combined, I guess it evens out to be about the same, but you could argue that the offense’s improvement could help carry the team.
Trade deadline is about 1.5 months away. Are we buyers or sellers and what are we buying or selling?
DBacksEurope: I say the Diamondbacks will become sellers unless we go on a tear like last year. However, I think this team is too weak in the bullpen and don’t see any easy fix there. If the team is still in the race for the postseason, I can see them make a minor bullpen move that won’t really help us, and stay pat. In the light of that Arizona Sports article, I can’t believe Ken Kendrick is willing to open the purse and spend even more with all that dead money on the IL. If we continue to hover around .500: Kelly, Naylor, Suarez look like pieces that will leave. Gallen will take the QO.
Spencer: Neither. I expect we sell Suarez regardless to make room for Lawlar to finish developing. But my personal opinion is that Kelly Gallen and Naylor have more use to us as QO rejecters. If they accept, great, we can try to compete in 2026 again. If they reject, the 2026 Draft Bonus Pool for the team could be approaching 2019 levels of fluidity. We’d have: a normal first rounder, an early Competitive Balance pick, normal second and third round picks with qualifying offer compensation picks sprinkled in. Theoretically we could end up with 6-8 of the top 100 total picks.
Makakilo: It depends. The Diamondbacks are on a winning streak. If they extend that streak, the Diamondbacks could be buyers!
Justin: I think if they go on a run, in particular the last half of June against the WS, Rockies and Marlins we would be right back in it. As it stands right now, they are 2.5 back of the 3rd wildcard (3.5 if we lose to the Padres later today). I can definitely see trying to pick up a reliever or two or a starter.
If you really asked me I would probably just stand pat. Maybe trade off someone like Suarez like Spencer mentioned.
1AZfan1: I still think they have to be over 5 games out of a wildcard to consider selling. If they are still 2.5 games out of the playoffs in late July (as they are at the time of my response here), I would bet on a cheap bullpen addition (something along the lines of Dylan Floro for a AAA non-prospect last year. I still can’t understand how he had the worst couple months of his career after coming to us at the deadline) and hoping he doesn’t flame out. If they are right there in a wildcard slot or a game out, I’d bet on trying to get a legit high-leverage bullpen arm, but I’m not sure who has one that is willing to sell.
Ben: This current five-game winning streak has put them just 2.5 back of a wild card spot and two games over .500. I tend to agree with AZfan, the team has too much invested in this current iteration to punt unless they’re well out of contention. However, there are plenty of players that would spark interest in contenders if they decided to make that pivot so I’ll be watching the other contending teams very closely.
Do you vote in the ASG? Why or why not?
DBacksEurope: Yes I do. I like to think that my vote counts there.
Spencer: Absolutely. I vote every day for the entire Rockies and White Sox lineups. The all star game is a joke, so I vote to send the players it deserves.
Makakilo: Today I voted! Why not vote for my favorites? I voted because it’s one way to add substance to my comments.
Justin: No, I don’t think I usually do. I haven’t watched an allstar game in a long time. Just not my cup of tea, I guess.
1AZfan1: I do, but certainly not every day. Maybe a couple times a year. I don’t know that it makes much of a difference, but I like to do it.
Ben: Yes, of course I voted. If I have the option to have my voice heard on something that matters to me, why wouldn’t I utilize it?
Justin: Maybe I should delete my answer lol (Yes, I realize I wasnt being called out. I’m kidding)
What’s your least favorite animal?
DBacksEurope: An easy answer is tiger mosquitoes. If you want an unpopular answer I’ll say I can’t stand dogs, especially the smaller, always stressed ones. What I also don’t understand is why people would like to have aggressive dogs like a pitbull that can kill you or a Doberman that will bite anything within reach. “He normally never does that”, I am sick of that excuse.
Spencer: Humans.
Spencer: DBE, I mean no offense, but aggressiveness of dogs has absolutely nothing to do with breed. I’ve been bitten by more golden retrievers than “aggressive” breeds like pit bulls or Dobermans (or German shepherds/rotties/etc when those were the breeds of choice to target). My many college veterinarian friends concur with me. An aggressive dog is likely untrained, has little outlet for its energy and/or got bad vibes off a nearby entity.
Makakilo: Two animals that I very much like are birds and bees. Perhaps their opposites (a way to say least favorite) could be squirrels and ants. Taken to super-hero extremes, my least favorites could be Ch’p (an alien super squirrel) and Ant-Man (although he can communicate with ants, he may be more human than ant).
Justin: I am kind of indifferent to dogs and cats. Chihuahuas are insane. That isn’t my answer though. Least favorite, I think Id go with insects. Like all of them. Spiders too…
1AZfan1: Mosquitos are a great answer here, DBE.
Ben: I’ll go with ticks. At least for mosquitos I can make the argument that they’re an important part of the food chain for things above them, but ticks don’t have the same benefit – or at least not to the same degree. And they’re an incredibly effective vector for any number of diseases in addition to being off putting.