Burnes broke
Our prized acquisition is getting Tommy John Surgery. Just how bad is that for our playoff chances?
James: It is huge. Even if the Diamondbacks manage to stay in the race, the lack of Burnes in the rotation means AZ lacks a true ace for October ball.
Justin: I echo James’ sentiments. Jack published an article that I will be including in my Snake Bytes about projection of the rotation. (by the time this round table gets posted, my SBs will have been up. )
Projecting a Diamondbacks Rotation Without Corbin Burnes
Spencer: Playoffs? What are playoffs? October is for beach time. Or in Arizona terms, going someplace to cool off.
Jim: To quote a certain bowl of petunias, “Oh, no – not again…” The curse of Arizona continues with regard to expensive pitching. Over $54 million in salary this year is now on the Tommy John IL, and will not be seen again. [That’s not even including this year’s crop of TJ minor leaguers like Blake Walston, Josh Winder and Thyago Vieira] For a big market team, it’d hurt. For somewhere like Arizona, it’s disastrous. If I was Ken Kendrick, I’d be asking, “Why are we paying a franchise record payroll?” And I’m not sure I have any answers for that.
DBacksEurope: Combine James’, Spencer’s and Jim’s answers and you have mine.
Makakilo:
A. Impact on Diamondbacks reaching playoffs.
The numbers point of view (skip this view if you want, just know the impact was less than I initially thought). Replacing Burnes (wOBA .292) with pitching at the Rockies team average (wOBA .357) would (going forward) increase the team wOBA from .327 to .334 (nearly the same as the Marlins). The Marlins .335 wOBA meant allowing 5.38 runs per game (0.22 more runs per game than the Diamondbacks).
The idea point of view. My pre-season view was that Diamondbacks’ pitchers were capable of pitching at league average. League average is 0.85 runs per game better than the Diamondbacks. If the current pitchers could pitch just a little closer to their talent levels, then it would mitigate the loss of Burnes. Alternatively, improving one of the Diamondbacks’ strengths (such as batting) could mitigate the loss.
B. Impact on how far the Diamondbacks could advance in the playoffs. He pitched very well in the playoffs games (2.33 ERA in 27 innings). Loss of Burnes has a significant negative impact.
1AZfan1: Obviously losing a pitcher of Burnes’ caliber is a big loss, but it is not the end of the world. Our pitching staff’s overall underperformance to this point in the season has already made what’s left of the season an uphill climb to the playoffs. If the rest of the pitching staff comes back to what they’re capable of, we can handle losing Burnes, especially with our high-powered offense. If the rest of the staff doesn’t begin to pitch better, it wouldn’t matter if Burnes was healthy or not, we wouldn’t make the playoffs anyway.
Wesley: Our chances of making the postseason feels like its absolutely hopeless, especially after that news was followed up with a pair of losses on Saturday. I actually don’t know if we’d be able to make the postseason with Corbin Burnes. I’m beginning to think that a strategic, partial teardown of the roster at the deadline might be the only remedy for the team the next few seasons.
Ben: It’s a pretty painful loss. He was the only stabilizing force in the rotation to this point and losing him for the rest of the year significantly reduces the ceiling of that group and the team as a whole. That said, he was due for some regression with a disconcertingly high differential between his FIP and ERA (3.88 and 2.66 respectively), his highest walk rate in his career, and an elevated hard hit rate. But there isn’t any replacement for him internally and my guess is that ownership and management are unwilling to spend the prospect capital or salary to try and find a lesser replacement on the trade market either.
ISH95: Not great Bob! Those hopes already seemed tenuous, and while they are hardly completely out of the question, losing a player at Burnes’ caliber when they are already so far behind is bordering on catastrophic. The team seems to agree based on how they played against the Reds once the news came out.
Do you feel comfortable counting on any of our current starters to pick up the slack?
James: I think the team can find a solution to cover the innings. I am less comfortable than the solution will be much more than League average. If AZ is not selling at the deadline, they will need to be in the market for a starter.
Justin: To be honest I read that and Merrill Kelly immediately popped into my mind. No reason, it just did. I hope Gallen does.
Spencer: Yes. Merrill can show up and Gallen has it in him. Pfaadt can continue to develop. Prospects can cover for ERod’s spectacular fall off a cliff. But reasonably? No. Not in 2025 at least.
Jim: Not at the level of Burnes (154 ERA+). Cristian Mena might have been the best bet to come into the rotation, but he has now been broken on the wheel of Apple TV. Average ERA is likely the best we can hope for in terms of any replacement. And 100 ERA+ would be the D-backs #2, behind Kelly.
DBacksEurope: We basically return to our 2023 rotation unless Rodriguez all of a sudden starts to pitch well above league average…or league average to start with. That rotation helped us reach the playoffs and World Series, so…but I don’t see that happen in 2025.
Makakilo: If ‘pick up the slack’ means pitch closer to their talent levels, then my answer is yes, all of the starters! If ‘pick up the slack’ means pitch more innings into each game, then my answer is no. My view is that the Diamondbacks have been motivated (by their bullpen problems) for starters to pitch deep into games; and therefore that aspect has been maximized (within the bounds of injury prevention).
1AZfan1: I do think so. Merrill Kelly can’t pitch much better than he has, so that leaves Gallen, Pfaadt, E-Rod, and Nelson as the men who have to step up. Just looking at Game Score for simplicity sake, Zac Gallen has had higher highs than Burnes this year (81 season high vs. 75, both have had 4 Game Scores over 60), but he’s also had very significant stinkers mixed in (Gallen has had 6 GSc below 40 while Burnes had 1). I expect Gallen’s worst to not be so bad going forward (only 4 GSc <40 all of last year), maybe not consistently as good as Burnes, but not alternating between trainwreck and Cy Young as much. Nelson just had his first stinker of a start this year and he only had 2 poor starts post-ASB last season. I am still considering Nelson a very viable Game 3 starter in the playoffs unless he reels off a month straight of outings like yesterday. E-Rod is the last one I want to touch on, and I feel he’s getting no faith from much of the fanbase. Over the first 5 starts this year, he had Game Scores of 52, 52, 52, 49, 50. Then he went on a bit of a streak that is poisoning our impression of him (understandably) which ended in him landing on the IL. In his first start off the IL, he tossed another 50 GSc. If he is back to being that league average guy he was the first month and not the batting practice pitcher he was for the next month, he is a good #4 and a great #5.
Makakilo: 1AZfan1 inspired me to look at this season’s WPA for the Diamondbacks starting pitchers. Merrill Kelly’s 1.1 WPA was best. Burnes’ 0.7 WPA was second best. Gallen’s negative 0.8 WPA was fifth best. Gallen has room to improve to his talent level!
Wesley: As the others have said, Merrill Kelly has been the best starting pitcher by a wide margin this season.
Ben: Merrill Kelly is the only starter I have any confidence in at the moment. But that could easily change after a couple solid starts from any of them. Each of the starters have a ceiling that could really help carry the rotation, but none of them outside of Burnes and Kelly have been able to achieve anything close to their respective ceilings.
ISH95: Almost all of our starters have room to improve, with the possible exception of Kelly. Everyone else has pitched pretty well below their actual talent level recently and it’s shown in the team’s results. However, do I trust any of them to improve? Honestly? I’m not sure I do. I think Pfaadt will turn it around and go back to normal. Just don’t know when. Gallen would be great if we could pick up Chase Field and move it to NYC. I’m just not sure.
Related, do you see the Diamondbacks trying to fill the gap (maybe not at such a high level) at the deadline?
James: Ask me again in four or five weeks. If the team finds their stride, Mike Hazen will have little choice but to bolster the rotation. If they continue to hover at .500, I expect them to try and “get by”.
Justin: Perhaps. I think the next month will be telling whether we are buyers or sellers. Even if we are buyers I am not confident that we could make a deep playoff run. Might just be a “cool we got in, despite our early season and Burnes going down.”
Spencer: If we’re buying in July, we need to be the first wild card on deadline day. Anything less and we ought to be cashing in on all expiring value to focus on 2027.
DBacksEurope: I don’t see it happening. The bullpen is still a bigger issue than our rotation. On the pitching side there are too many gaps to fill. Trying to plug those holes at the trade deadline will be impossible and it will mean increasing payroll even further, and the way the Diamondbacks are going, you’d be putting more money in a team that is navigating without a rudder. On the other hand, I don’t see the Diamondbacks as huge sellers either. Kelly and Naylor are interesting for any team and are probably gone but won’t net a big return, and Gallen’s (and the team’s) best shot at the moment is him taking the QO and looking to bounce back in 2026.
Makakilo: It depends. This season, the Diamondbacks are (and they may still be) all-in. If the team can improve to mount 500 or better, and if the trade deadline presents the Diamondbacks with an opportunity, my view is the team will trade prospects for a new starter, as long as that starter is under team control for this season and at least one future season. If the team falls significantly below mount 500, then my view is they will likely trade away several players who are in their last season of team control.
1AZfan1: I still believe it will take a further drop for us to be sellers at the deadline. Maybe Hazen gets bowled over by an offer for Naylor, Miller, or Kelly, but I think it would take a drastic overpay for Hazen to let one of those guys go if we’re still sitting within 5 games of the Wild Card. If we’re within a game of the Wild Card or claiming one of the Wild Card slots at the deadline, I fully expect bullpen help to be added. Starters usually cost too much, and if we’ve made up enough ground to be that close to the Wild Card, that likely means our starters have begun pitching to their collective expectations anyway so we probably don’t need one.
Wesley: If they’re in the thick of the NL Wild Card race, I’d assume Hazen is going to buy at the deadline. Regardless of the standings and their record at the trade deadline, I think buying would be a mistake. It will take a LOT for this team to make the postseason and I don’t see any potential deals that would move the needle. As I said in the prior response, I think it might be time to do a strategic deadline to shift the competitive window. If Hazen makes the right moves, he can improve the roster while also making it cheaper and giving him more years of control.
Ben: As long as the team continues to be in the hunt for a spot, I think Hazen will look to make improvements around the edges – especially in the bullpen. There’s also enough major league talent on expiring contracts, including Naylor, Suarez, and Gurriel Jr that could be packaged with someone else to try and find some pitching help.
ISH95: I think Hazen will do something, but probably not in any sort of way we see coming. He isn’t a really big proponent of selling or buying based off his history, so my guess is he ends up doing something that seems like selling (Suarez? Naylor even?) but brings back someone that can slot into the rotation.
In a positive light, do you see the past week as a potential turning point, or did the Reds series quash any good vibes you were feeling?
James: The whooping they took today does not inspire confidence.
Justin: I was thinking the Braves series might be a turning point, but then Friday and Saturday happened along with Johns of the Tommys.
Spencer: I lived the Saturday 13-1 defeat in person from section 522 of GABP. My friend wanted to wear the jersey I bought in 2021 that reads “Order 66” because he’s a huge Star Wars fan. It encapsulates my feelings on the season perfectly. Look to 2026 and stock up on one year deals to bring more talent back in 13 months then hope Burnes is healthy, able and doesn’t opt out for 2027.
DBacksEurope: This team is and was a team of ups and downs. I was surprised that they swept the Braves and didn’t see it as a turning point. For some reason they somehow motivate themselves and perform against teams of reputation but then ridicule themselves against lesser teams.
Makakilo: After reaching .500 and playing well enough to show promise that they will compete for a playoff berth, my thoughts were good vibes. After the three losses to the Reds, with bad news on Burnes, and the injury to Moreno, and the injury to Cristian Mena, there are less good vibes. Instead, my thoughts are more positive and optimistic vibes.
1AZfan1: DBE’s “ups and downs” is 100% accurate. This year. Last year. 2023, too. There’s very little consistency with this team. At least we’re not the Rockies, and I’m very thankful for that.
Wesley: If I was as invested in this team as much as I was a decade ago, I’d be extremely pessimistic and I’d view the season as all but over. These days I follow this team with zero expectations, anything positive they accomplish is always a pleasant surprise in that case.
Ben: This team is too inconsistent to get out of their own way. This past week has shown exactly that inconsistency even with better outcomes – especially on the offensive side. It’s hard to understand seeing them have a great series in Atlanta, including that 11-run outburst in the series finale, and then follow that up with an absolute dud where they’ve scored a measly six runs and counting in a much easier matchup and stadium in Cincinnati.
ISH95: I learned my lesson in declaring seasons over last year, but last year had some distinct differences that this one doesn’t. There are no enforcements coming. This is it. The Braves series was good, and it felt good, but the Reds sweep shows just how much room there is between this team and a real contender. Something has to change, and I don’t think it happened during the Braves series.
In honor of Phoenix Fan Fusion this weekend, if you could have a super power, what would it be?
James: I have no idea, maybe immortality?
Justin: As long as you didn’t age, sure lol. I might go with that. I used to be a nursing assistant briefly, before Frys, and don’t want to end up like that.
Spencer: I’d want telekinesis I think. I’m lazy and it’d make for fun parlor tricks.
DBacksEurope: Strength. It must feel awesome to walk around and knowing you can teach each d*** a lesson. The art would then be to not become a terrible a*****e yourself.
Makakilo: To communicate telepathically would be cool because it could be superior to normal communication, which often has gaps and shortfalls because good communication often requires skill and preparation. On the other hand, maybe unanticipated difficulties would be revealed when communicating telepathically (such as a noisy mind, or a mind that changes its thoughts mid-stream).
1AZfan1: Flight. 1000% flight.
Justin: You know what, I’ll go with flight as well.
Wesley: Reality warping or the ability to manipulate time and space i.e. some very, very broken abilities especially if used in an intelligent and creative fashion.
Ben: I’ve always said teleportation when I’ve been asked this question. I love to travel, but I hate the actual act of getting to my destination. If I could travel without that literal and figurative headache, it would be a dream come true. And that’s without touching the advantages for a work commute or visiting friends and family at the drop of a hat!
ISH95: The cop out answer is money, but I’ll go with the slightly less cop out of super intelligence. You want teleportation? You can invent it. You want time travel? You can make that happen. You want excessive amounts of money? Go for it.