Our panelists discuss what they would like to see come back at the deadline, what it would take to buy, and more!
The ceremonial first half has come to an end. Thoughts on what we saw?
Sam: The good: Our three very deserving All-Stars, and the lineup more generally. The bad: Inconsistent performance from the uninjured rotation. The ugly: A Tommy John apocalypse: Burnes, Puk, Martinez, Montgomery, and soon to be Miller?
Spencer: Meh. We saw excellent hitting and horrible pitching. We’ve also been privy to one of the worst stretches of pitching health in team history. I’ve dubbed them The Kaplan 11 in my own mind.
Makakilo:
Hanging with the best:
- Offense, Diamondbacks Do It Right. 5.1 runs per game ranked 4th best in the Majors.
- defense in right field (Corbin Carroll with 4 OAA & 2 DRS).
- defense in center field against balls hit in the air (.365 wOBA per this AZ Snake Pit article).
- two types of pitches: Cutters, which averaged 1.5 MPH faster than league average and knuckle curves which averaged 2.1 MPH less than league average per this AZ Snake Pit article.
Surprisingly average: 61.4% saves per opportunity ranked 16th in the Majors. Average was a surprise because of their 11-19 record in 1-run games.
Disappointing:
- injured list. $68.5 Million on injured list (18 July) ranked 3rd highest in the Majors.
- defense (except for the two strong points mentioned). Negative 24 DRS tied the Nationals for 25th in the Majors.
- pitching. 4.63 overall ERA ranked 25th in the Majors.
Justin: I’ll just say all of what Sam wrote is what immediately comes to mind, as well.
Preston: We saw 19 players take the field in Diamondbacks uniforms for the first time ever. That, in my mind, is the story of the year, because it encompasses the injuries and explains some of the defensive inconsistency. Only three of those (Corbin Burnes, Josh Naylor, and Kendall Graveman) were planned at the start of the spring. That doesn’t include retreads Ildemaro Vargas and (if he appears in a game) Sergio Alcantara.
I’ll say that, depending on how you look at it, the defense has been pretty decent. DRS makes it look terribad, UZR is around average, and FRV (the Statcast measurement) is 6 runs above-average. (I’ll note that a lot of that six runs is catcher defense, which isn’t as easy to notice for the casual fan.) Offense has been better than expected.
Makakilo: Another defense-positive follows with a hat-tip to Preston. The Diamondbacks with above average FRV were:
- 7, Gabriel Moreno (framing 5, throwing 1, blocking 1)
- 4, Corbin Carroll
- 2, Alek Thomas
- 2, Jake McCarthy
- 1, Jorge Barrosa
- 1, Tim Tawa
James: I think we saw precisely why teams with better financial muscle are more able to stay atop the standings. Arizona has one of the more talented rosters in the game, when it is healthy. It would be pretty hard to go through and find a more impactful group of players to lose to injury than what has happened to AZ. Sure, every team has injury woes. Heck, the Dodgers purchase them. But the difference here is that AZ still lacks depth. So, when any of their impact players goes down, AZ is left trying to cobble solutions together.
Detroit is riding quite the high. The challenge seems to be whether or not they will thrive in the postseason. They are also a cautionary tale for those wanting AZ to just blow the team up outside of Carroll and Marte. If Hazen does his typical sell-to-buy sort of trades, AZ could still provide plenty of exciting baseball down the stretch, even have people counting down the magic number instead of the elimination number.
Ben: D-Backs specific, it was a half with plenty of highs and unfortunately far more lows than we expected. It was nice to see the Arizona offense continue to be as dynamic as it was last year, but obviously the pitching injuries and inconsistency were the dominant storylines from the first half for the D-Backs. Even worse, a lot of those injuries will extend into next season, which will undoubtedly alter this Trade Deadline strategy along with the offseason’s free agency.
Around the league, it was a half of surprises. I doubt many expected the Braves and Orioles to be closer to a top-10 draft pick than a playoff spot. I’ve also really been pleasantly surprised at the number of prospects that have made their debuts – it’s always fun to see the next crop of young talent bubbling up.
Wesley: I can’t say I am all that disappointed considering I had low expectations in the first place. However, the fact that they’ve held onto ~.500 for so long considering all the injuries should be taken as a positive sign.
What are you hoping Hazen and Co. brings back at the trade deadline?
Sam: Top starting pitching prospects who are near their MLB debuts. Even if we bring back Kelly, we will have a hole to fill in the top line rotation until Burnes returns, and we’ve seen how trying to fill that in free agency has gone.
Spencer: Best pitching prospects available. I think 2026 is basically a lost cause due to the nature of The Kaplan 11. So I’d like to see higher end arms at A-level (low or high A doesn’t really matter). I don’t need/want more Tommy Henry or the other AAA “depth” we have now because those aren’t going to really help the team during their next contention window in 2027. They’ll just be those injury replacements like Tommy Henry was supposed to be this year. We have plenty of that already; it’s even under control.
Makakilo: Interesting trade targets are an awesome closer (to improve their win-loss record in 1-run games) and an average reliever per this AZ Snake Pit article. Two reasons to look for average relievers:
- The Diamondbacks offense is so awesome, that league average pitching is likely all it will take to reach the playoffs.
- Sometimes an average reliever finds a way to be an excellent reliever (creating surplus value in the trade).
Justin: I would like to see a top pitching prospect that is near their debut or has already had a few games under his belt. Bullpen help. I would rather not trade Suarez or Kelly, but that is just from a “fan” perspective. I understand that they might be our best trade chips.
Ben: I agree that pitching has to be the overall target for returns. That side of the farm system has really fallen off recently – especially after recent graduations and some losses through trades. I suspect that’s why the last two draft classes have been so pitcher dominated (54% in 2024 and a whopping 70% in 2025).
Preston: While it’s important to remember TINSTAAP (there is no such thing as a pitching prospect) pitching has to be the target at the deadline. With Yilber Diaz imploding at Reno and Cristian Mena’s health being a concern, the pitching prospects closest to the big leagues are Dylan Ray and Spencer Giesting, neither of whom should be in the middle of a playoff rotation. Daniel Eagen and John West have the two best performances of last year’s draftees, and neither is close, with both of them showing flashes but being inconsistent. Compensation pick Patrick Forbes might well be the top pitching prospect on many of the next ratings.
James: I think they should be targeting pitching. What I am not convinced of is that they have the trade chips to land any meaningful pitching. Any pitcher worth a damn that will be MLB-ready by late 2026 is unlikely to be available, even for Suarez. Sure, there might be some #⅘ starter types or middle relievers available, but teams simply aren’t trading arms with potential much anymore. That’s part of what makes Gallen and Kelly being available so appealing to the trade market. It is no longer common for such talented pitching (even when struggling) to be available so cheaply. I have doubts that Suarez is bringing back a top starting pitching prospect. I would be thrilled if they could find a few seasons of high leverage relief pitching though. Not only is A.J. Puk down for Tommy John, he isn’t under team control beyond this year. Martinez is likely out until 2027. The team needs solid back-end options as much or more than they need starters.
Wesley: Obviously they need to target pitching, but I’m going to advocate instead for just getting the best possible players back, while just planning for the competitive window to be moved back a year.
Is there any outcome over the next two weeks that could convince you to buy?
Sam: In my book, they need to go 8-1 or better over the first three series after the break, including a sweep of the Cardinals, whom they’re chasing in the wildcard. Note that this might not be possible by the time you’re reading this.
Spencer: Maybe if they go undefeated? My preference is to sell and hope to compete in 2025 and 2026 against the odds. But buying would be fun if reckless.
Makakilo: A ten game winning streak with 5 shutouts (my outrageous optimism is showing).
Justin: None. If anything, I’ll go as far as to say I wouldn’t mind them going .500 rather than an insane tear that makes Hazen think we have a glimmer of hope. Time to focus on 2027.
Ben: I’m with Justin that there’s nothing the team could do to justify buying. My worst fear would be the team going on a hot streak to increase the pressure from the fanbase and ownership to be aggressive only for the seemingly inevitable injuries to crop back up or their luck to turn again. That worst case scenario could leave the farm system even further depleted with only a gambler’s chance at a playoff appearance. I have confidence in Hazen to make the right choice though in being realistic about this season.
Preston: There is no universe in which this team should buy. The farm system is not bad, but it’s short on impact talent in the top two levels of the minors. It’s basically Jordan Lawlar (when healthy) and Ryan Waldschmidt, with an argument to be made for LuJames Groover. There are others who could be solid big leaguers, but it’s those three when it comes to potential future All Stars in Reno or Amarillo. They need to hold prospects. There can be some improvements around the fringes with redundancy, but it would be far better (if they go on a tear and get back in the race) to just hold rather than mortgage the future on a small chance of winning.
James: I think the closest this team comes is the sort of trade Hazen is known for; trading quality for control over other quality. That’s about as close to being “buyers” as I can see the team becoming. I would not, however, be shocked if Suarez is the only meaningful name moved (unless Miller gets healthy and hot).
Wesley: A ten game winning streak with overwhelmingly good play in all aspects of the game. They gotta play like an actual winning team.
What changes would you make to the All Star Game, and why is it STOP HITTING GENO.
Sam: I honestly like it pretty much the way it is. Each pitcher and hitter gets their chance, with most starters getting a second at-bat. The swing-off was a nice finish to keep it at a tidy 9 innings. The home run derby was also nice, except I wish Geno could have taken part. Judge and Ohtani, too — only three of the contestants were in the top 25 in MLB in home runs.
Spencer: Kill the game. It’s meaningless and boring. Replace it with various skills challenges like other leagues around the world do. Then create a new award to be dealt out “midseason” that isn’t regulated by each team requiring an honoree. Give it to the players who actually deserve it. Keep the draft (make it faster), and let the honored prospects compete in the challenges with the MLB guys. Let the world see which prospects actually have tools that are MLB ready and/or worth getting exciting about. Kill the popularity showcase that is the Futures Game.
Makakilo: The mini home-run derby to break the tie was a great idea! Maybe instead of the 7th inning stretch, a skill based contest (worth 1-run) could be added to the All-Star game.
Justin: I am fine with it. I like the swing off idea. I am glad our representatives did well. I don’t usually watch the allstar game but this one seems to be one I wish I had watched. I don’t like the 3×3, “Captains pick their team” NHL allstar game, though….
Preston: Scrap interleague play. Separate the leagues. Make it mean something. Hopefully develop some bad blood between the leagues, like existed in the 1970s.
Seriously, there’s no saving it. But that home run nonsense was a tragedy, since it means they are going to try to make that happen in games that count, and we all want Game 7 of the World Series to come down to glorified batting practice, don’t we?
James: I honestly doubt there is any saving the event at this point, regardless of what is done to “improve” it. I suppose I would start with one of Preston’s best suggestions though. I would eliminate regular season interleague play. I would do that with or without the All-Star Game though, so I don’t know that I can really count that. I would probably also move the ASG to the end of the season, maybe the first weekend after the conclusion of the World Series. Let that game kick off the official offseason where teams can start making moves – sort of like a reverse Community Shield for those that know English Football. I would still have a mid-season break of 7-10 days, but the ASG and related festivities would no longer be in the middle of the season, right before the trade deadline, when teams and players are worried about the likes of fatigue and injury. There are other things I would change as well, but at the end of the day, it is still just an exhibition game that simply does not matter.
Ben: I’m a pretty big fan of its current version. I wish it were more meaningful (i.e. when it determined which World Series representative got home field advantage), but I understand why it was scrapped. I disagree with Preston’s suggestion about scrapping the interleague play. I like the sense of parity we can get from seeing all teams play all the other teams while giving fans an opportunity to see the game’s biggest stars that play in another league.
Wesley: The All-Star game has been pointless to me for years. Getting rid of interleague play would do a whole lot to make it more relevant to me, but there’s really not much MLB can do to make me care about it in the first place.
ISH95: I think one easy change that could be made would be to move it to a Spring training event, rather than a mid season event. There would be fewer injury replacements, meaning fewer questionable choices made closer to the game. I would also nerf the fan vote. Not entirely sure, but picking the entire starting lineup just isn’t it. A thought would be something similar to what they have now, where the top vote getters in both leagues are automatic starters. Expand that to the top three, maybe, and then a combination of players, coaches, and general managers pick the rest.
Best meal you’ve ever had?
Sam: A 10-course meal in Taiwan at the end of my first and still only time there. The lettuce wraps were my favorite course.
Spencer: Meal memories to me are often about the ambiance and company shared. So I’m not sure I have a single standout. Among my top experiences are probably: my brother’s rehearsal dinner, a lamb chop I enjoyed with my closest friends on a cruise in Alaska (this might truly be the best food I’ve ever had), countless experiences in backyards with friends and family.
Makakilo: My best meal was in a monastery when I visited Japan. My plan is to visit Japan soon, and hopefully my best meal will change.
Justin: I am not really sure. I have always like NE clam chowder. One of the most memorable meals I have had was when I made it from scratch in my instantpot. I have made it several times since. My mom takes my brother and I to a restaurant of our choice for a birthday lunch/dinner on our respective birthdays. That said, I suppose “most memorable” wasn’t the question.
James: As someone who spent three decades in the food service industry, the overwhelming majority of those as a chef, that’s a pretty difficult one to answer. I have had some truly divine meals in my time. I still maintain that the prime rib my best mate and I made for one of his co-workers’ wedding receptions was some of the best I have ever had. It was very slowly smoked and melted in the mouth, the way prime rib should. Overall though, I have simply been fortunate enough to have had a number of amazing meals in my life. It really isn’t fair to the meals to try and rank them.
Ben: Wow, that’s a tough one. There were several meals I loved while living in China and there were plenty of excellent ones we ate in Philadelphia. If I had to choose, I’ll go with one of our final meals in Philly at a place called Zahav. It’s a tasting menu that was absolutely delicious. If you’re looking to splurge while you’re in Philly, you can’t go wrong there!
Wesley: Bacon, eggs, and pancakes while doing a solo camping/hiking trip. No breakfast is better than when you’re literally starving after the first night, and have a filling, hearty meal. I have a lot of memorable meals with my friends and family though, and its very hard to pick just one.
ISH95: I wrote the question and it’s a tough one lol A couple standouts to me are a Korean style braised short rib that I had at Different Pointe of View in central Phoenix on top of North Mountain and a southwest style raw oyster I had at Confluence in Carefree.