What does this season’s pool of draft-eligible players look like?
This season sees a return to the sort of draft pool one would have expected before COVID went and screwed up the talent pool for four years as eligibility standards were in flux and the 2020 draft was only five rounds. As a result, the depth of top-tier talent in this draft is shallower than the last few years. However, this draft has a very small cream of the crop tier. On the other hand, the secondary tier is rather robust, extending down into the mid-20s in terms of potential impact talent. This bodes well for Arizona, who will be selecting 18th on the first night. They will also be selecting 29th. Though that is a bit low to be expecting impact talent to be readily available, it is not far to fall from #23 or #24 down to #29. So it is still very possible Arizona could find themselves two very meaningful diamonds in the rough in this year’s draft.
Without a selection in the second round, the team needs to get those first two picks right. They’ll also have less money to work with in this draft, so any big swings are likely going to come in the later rounds and will not likely be of the eye-popping variety.
What is tricky about this particular draft pool is the fact that it appears to be filled with solid floor players but a great deal of variability in ceilings. The Diamondbacks, for years now, have needed to do better identifying potential impact pitching in the draft and grabbing it. This season’s draft does not seem like a good one for that trend to change. There are some pitching prospects that could feasibly be available for Arizona. In fact, one of the players most heavily linked to Arizona over the last several weeks is UC Santa Barbara’s Tyler Bremner, one of the prospects considered a fast-moving starter candidate. However, Bremner’s stock has been on the rise of late and he could well be gone by #18 now. If such a “safe bet” starter is available, especially one with potentially a “best in draft” pitch in his repertoire, this would be a savvy pick for Arizona. If, however, the only pitching available is still of the speculative sort, Arizona might be best kicking the pitching can down the road another season.
On the position player side of things, this draft profiles best for those looking for solid all-around athletic talents. A talent with a variable range of #10-#20 is Brendan Summerhill out of Arizona, an outfielder capable of playing all three positions. He profiles best in right, where his range plays up and he can make use of his plus arm. There is nothing terribly spectacular about Summerhill. But he has a solid floor of an outfield regular who could hit anywhere from #2-#7 in the order. He’s also fairly mature as a player, profiling him as a fast mover of the sort Tommy Troy was expected to be before injuries derailed his early development. There are other players of this sort that should be readily available at #18, though this one also comes with the extra connection of Arizona, so it will stand out a bit more. It would not be a big surprise to see Arizona play in this particular section of the draft pool. There is a plethora of solid talent that should move somewhat quickly to be chosen from, allowing Mike Hazen and his team to find some surety in this draft before looking to possibly take some bigger swings later.
Finally, there is another approach that Arizona might take; doubling down at what they are good at, drafting and developing undersized hitters. There are a few of these sorts that have first-round levels of talent. And even better for Arizona, they cover the expanse of experiences from prepster to seasoned college player. Slater de Brun, a high school outfielder from Brun, Oregon and Kayson Cunningham, a high school shortstop out of San Antonio are two such talents. Unlike their college counterparts, the ceiling on these two players extends into the realm of potential all-star. The trade-off of course is that these are high school players, much further from the Majors, allowing for a greater chance of them going bust. Still, it is difficult to argue with the fact that Mike Hazen has a distinct “type” when it comes to finding value for the money in undersized players. Some of that is no doubt a holdover from his partnership with Amiel Sawdaye, but there is no denying that there seems to be a market inefficiency being exploited here.
One of the biggest, most reliable strategies in any draft is to simply draft the best player available, regardless of age, position, etc. The issue with that approach in this draft is that one could arrange slots #5-#20 into just about any order and find a way to defend the arrangement. That’s how close this draft is in terms of talent, where the defining feature is surety over ceiling. Because of that, and because of drafting in the latter half of the round, Arizona may need to go a step beyond simply taking the best player available, looking to also draft the player they think they can get the most out of, even if they might be a half-step behind others at the moment. This is why I can see Arizona leaning into the mantra of “doing what they know”, and taking themselves another undersized talent that they feel they can elevate. As the mock drafts continue to drop over the next 10 days or so, expect to see the Diamondbacks linked to both de Brun and Cunningham more often as the pundits start trying to figure out what differentiates one player from another in a draft with so many similar profiles. Cunningham may have a slight edge as some consider him to be potentially the best pure hitter in the draft, but de Brun brings plenty to his profile as well.
Next, we will look at what it might look like for Arizona to explore this draft for pitching, including a small handful of arms that make sense to consider for Arizona at #18 or #29.