Some final pre-draft thought before the big day tomorrow.
After further unfortunate injury news and a lackluster loss the the Angels last night, the Diamondbacks are racing toward being sellers at the trade deadline in 19 days. With that being the case, Sunday’s draft might just be the last bit of business to get truly excited for with regard to the Diamondbacks in 2025. Unfortunately for both the team and for fans, Arizona forfeited their second round pick when they signed Corbin Burnes, right before he got a late start to the season, missed a start due to a “new to him” injury, and then watched him go down for Tommy John surgery, with an expected return of Opening Day, 2027.
Unless Arizona makes some sort of out-of-the-blue trade with Seattle or Detroit Saturday morning, Arizona has picks 18, 29, and 92 on the first night. This means that Arizona needs to do their very best business within the first 30 picks of the draft. There is no wiggle-room to be had here for a team that is only starting to develop some signs of organizational depth. Arizona’s picks from 92 on are of the sort where teams hope to find useful role players and bullpen pieces. Expecting Arizona, with its limited budget and appeal to find needle-moving talents after the first night is not a reasonable expectation. That isn’t just for Arizona though. That’s for most teams.
Given that Arizona needs to get the first night right, most should be looking for Arizona to stick to what they know and to not take any big chances. This means, that Arizona likely avoids taking any pitchers on the first night (with two possible exceptions that we will get to in a moment). Furthermore, it seems likely that Arizona will take a toolsy, athletic, up-the-middle sort, prioritizing total package over just the bat.
With two selections in the top-30, Arizona, if they are careful (and also a bit lucky), has the opportunity to add two needle-moving talents in this season’s draft. None of the potential targets for Arizona in this season come with the eye-popping potential ceiling of Druw Jones or Jordan Lawlar. That’s something to be expected when not selecting near the very top of the draft. That does not mean that the team is without some intriguing options. One feature of this draft is that, after a small handful of star talent for the first few picks, the majority of the first round is highly fluid in how the talent shakes out. The combinations of present skill with varying degrees of ceiling outcomes mean that many players have ranges of 10-12 slots they could easily fit in without being considered either a reach or having fallen in the draft.
This is where the careful planning and luck come in. Should Mike Hazen and the Diamondbacks play their cards just right, they could land two future regular starters, perhaps even a potential all-star in this draft, despite the lack of stratospheric ceiling potential. How might this work? Let’s have a look at the general model.
Pick #18
This, more than anything, is where the Diamondbacks need to get it right. Sure, that can be said about the first pick for any team in any draft. But, the lack of a second round pick and the dearth of high ceiling talent (along with the imminent graduation of several farm players) makes it especially important for Arizona this year. There will be no selection of potential all-stars or regular players to be had in the 40s. By the time Arizona makes its third selection, they will already be into the realm of looking for role-players and potential relief arms.
Arizona has been frequently tied to a handful of names at #18, many of which they share with the Minnesota Twins at #16. However, because of the size of the tier of talent they will be picking in, a fair number of the prospects they are currently linked with at #18 may still be available at #29 as well. If they are not, there is an even chance that a similar talent will still be available at #29, assuming that the rest of the teams don’t go on some sort of run of the entire Arizona draft board. With this in mind, Arizona’s first job is to figure out which potential talents they are targeting are unlikely to slip to their second selection. By doing so, they seriously narrow the field to only a few options. Of those that are most frequently linked to Arizona, there are only three names that really stand out as both reasonable targets and with a profile likely to get Arizona’s attention, Those three are Brendan Summerhill, Steele Hall, and Cade Bodine.
Brendan Summerhill and Steele Hall were both given a quick once-over in the last installment. The first represents one of the best college outfield bats in the draft. Summerhill is a product of the University of Arizona, capable of playing all three outfield positions with above average skill, and the uncanny knack to act as a sparkplug for the team. It bears repeating again that the most common comp for Summerhill is the good version of Arizona’s own Jake McCarthy. Summerhill has an outside chance of going as high as ninth or lasting until as late as #20 if Arizona chooses to pass on him. Short of some sort of shenanigans between now and tomorrow, there is a near-zero chance he drops any further. If Arizona is interested in Summerhill, this is their one shot to grab him.
Steele Hall represents selecting both for ceiling and to take advantage of a fluid draft class. Hall has been slotted anywhere from the 6-7 range in the draft, all the way down to the 16-17 range in the draft. Even with such a large range of landing spots, Hall would be considered something of a falling prep talent that Arizona could pounce on at #18, electing to go for dynamic upside over a reliable floor. Hall dropping to #18 already feels like a bit of wishful thinking. Short of Hall declaring himself off the board for falling too far, there is essentially no chance that he makes it beyond #20 in this draft. Frankly, if he is still on the board at #18, he shouldn’t be making it to #19.
Lastly, there is Cade Bodine. Cade Bodine did not get a spotlight in the previous installment of this series because, at the time, it seemed mostly like wishful speculation to link him to Arizona. Now though, the speculation linking Arizona to Bodine is coming hot and heavy. In order to discuss Bodine, let’s quickly have a glance at his profile.
Cade Bodine, C, Coastal Carolina
DOB: 2 December 2003
Height: 5’10”
Weight: 190 lbs.
B/T: S/R
Scouting Grades: Hit: 60 | Power: 40 | Run: 40 | Field: 60 | Arm: 50
Bodine has the distinction of making Baseball America’s list of the five most-polarizing prospects in the draft. It isn’t hard to see why. Bodine and Luke Stevenson represent the two best pure catchers in the draft. Both have similar profiles defensively, with reputations as plus framers with the ability to gun down runners. In Bodine’s case, he is the superior pitch framer. However, Bodine’s success with throwing out runners is not unlike Dalton Varsho’s was, in that he relies as much on his rapid pop-time to elevate the results from his fringy arm. Unlike Varsho though, Bodine’s plays up a bit more, which is a good thing, as Bodine has no home elsewhere on the field. Where Stevenson and Bodine diverge the most is at the plate. Stevenson is a left-handed three true outcomes hitter with pop to spare. Bodine, on the other hand, is a contact hitter, with amazing control of the zone, but almost no pop of any kind.
As a defender, Bodine has all the tools to stick behind the plate. His advanced pitch framing is both a testament to his quiet glove and to his ability to call the game, getting his pitchers to trust him with edge pitching. He threw out 39% of the runners that tested him, which is elite, despite the fact that his arm is, at best, average. At the plate, Bodine is a true switch-hitter, with almost no meaningful splits between the two sides of the plate. Bodine might just be the best contact hitter in the draft, a trait that Mike Hazen has been known to prioritize in the past. What Bodine does not have though, is power. In three years at Coastal Carolina, he managed only 25 total home runs, with those numbers trending in the wrong direction. Bodine launched 11 in his freshman campaign, followed by nine, and then five. This is a bit worrisome. On the flip-side, that great contact ability I just mentioned? Yeah, Bodine sports a miniscule 7.9% strikeout rate, an 89% overall contact rate when he swings, and a staggering 94% contact rate on pitches in the zone. That sort of contact ability led Bodine to sport a .337 career batting average after he left the prep ranks (including a .384 average in the Cape League).
One of the things that makes Bodine such a polarizing pick is that he is, essentially, a finished product already. What you see is what you get. There is little to no projection left in his profile. Teams looking at Bodine as a potential everyday backstop will likely be hoping that small tweaks to his swing might result in a bit more loft on his very, very flat line drive swing. Doing so might (and it is a very big might) result in a 12-15 home run bat. But, the danger there comes from taking away what works for him. While not a perfect comp, there are many similarities between Bodine and Gabriel Moreno. Both a smaller stature but solidly built, with excellent bat-to-ball skills and an unquestionable ability to control the running game and handle a pitching staff. Moreno, for all his lack of pop, has more power than Bodine. But Bodine hits from both sides of the plate and may actually project as a .300 hitter, even in the Majors, especially given his ability to consistently walk more than he strikes out.
Any team selecting Bodine should expect a quick arrival in the Majors. Either he will adapt as he sees increasing levels of talent, or his lack of athleticism and essentially zero pop will get exploited, resulting in him creeping into the Majors somewhere down the road as a glove-first back-up. While this is not a terrible outcome, it is a risk at #18 in the draft.
If Arizona has serious interest in any of the three players (and reports are that they have real interest in them), the 18th pick in the draft will represent their one opportunity to grab one of them. Hall dropping seems unlikely. Having their choice of Summerhill or Bodine may actually come to pass. All will be gone well before #29. In order for Arizona to maximize this draft, taking one of these three at #18 is key.
Pick #29
This is where Arizona’s work scouting talents to pick at #18 could come into play in large ways. Nearly all of the other talents covered in both the pitching and position player segments of this series have the potential to still be available at #29, with left-handed prep pitcher, Kruz Schoolcraft being the lone exception.
The easiest play for Arizona with the 29th pick is to simply take whichever potential #18 talent is still on the board. It is unlikely multiple such names will still be available at #29, but if there are multiple names, none of them would be a “wrong” choice. This includes two-way player, Josh Hammond, who may even make it into the second round. He’s a wild card in this draft, but his desire to be a bat-first player may alter his landing spot. Arizona has not been heavily linked to him. However, Hammond has potential impact talent both in the field and on the mound and is slotted right around where Arizona will be selecting – at least in terms of talent level.
The last name to throw out for consideration at #29 represents Arizona going against the grain a bit. This would be selecting Jack Bauer (yes, he really was named after the fictional character played by Kieffer Sutherland). Bauer has very easy triple-digit heat in his explosive fastball. He also comfortably spins his breaking pitch at over 3,000 rpm. He is a high school lefty who stands 6’3” and weighs in at 190 lbs. The issue for Bauer is his command. This issue (and it is by no means a small one with Bauer) makes him a true boom/bust candidate with a variable upside of a solid #2, a closer, or a flame-throwing middle reliever who can go more than three batters. For those wondering, here are his grades.
Scouting grades: Fastball: 80 | Slider: 55 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 40 | Overall: 50
Mike Hazen and the Diamondbacks are not known for taking pitching early, at least not in the last decade. It also represents selling out for upside with a pick other than a true first-round selection. Most teams take their big swing with their first pick, as that is where the biggest surety in talent lies. But, in this case, with the boom/bust factor, age, and question marks all taken into consideration, there is very real chance that Bauer is still available at #29. This is one way in which Hazen & Co. might be able to squeeze an all-star out of their second selection in the draft. Were Bauer to be drafted by Arizona, he would likely slate as the #3 or #4 prospect in the Diamondbacks’ system.
Clearly, drafting Bauer at #29 requires Arizona being confident that they can unlock his best self. There are numerous reasons to be concerned about that notion. It is not like Arizona is churning out pitching talent like Cleveland, or even St. Louis or Seattle. In fact, Arizona is one of the poorest teams at developing pitching talent. Some of that reputation is unwarranted. After all, if they continue to select bats early in the draft, it is not as though they have quality arms to develop to begin with. But there are other warning signs as well. Jon Duplantier, Brad Keller, Slade Cecconi, and Archie Bradley are all cautionary tales for Arizona’s pitching development.
Should Arizona choose to “play it safe” and avoid pitching, they should have a decent crop of bats to choose from, unless the baseball gods decide to laugh at all of us pundits and have teams get funny with the money all over the first round. As the final mocks drop, it is becoming more and more apparent that Salter de Brun may be the “weakest” of previously reviewed prospects. As a prepster, he still will have some helium once teams start making their selections. But, for every slot he rises, some other, similarly talented player falls. Out of the college bats reviewed, Gavin Kilen probably has the best chance of falling to Arizona at #29. While Kilen is by no means a sexy pick, as someone who could potentially go in the top half of the first round, landing him at #29 should feel like a steal.
In Conclusion
Of course, there is also the not entirely out of the question possibility that every player Arizona has been linked to or shown real interest in gets selected before they get their shot, at least at #29. The names listed here for best fits at #18 could all be gone by the time Arizona selects. But, if that happens, it is a fair bet that every other player that they have been linked to is available. It is their second pick that gets much harder to pin down. IN the unlikely (but by no means impossible) event that all of Kayson Cunningham, Kilen, Bauer, Hammond, de Brun, Marek Houston, and Gage Wood are all taken somewhere from #19-#28, then Arizona has a very easy decision. At that point, the pick should become about simply defaulting to best college player available. In that scenario, any prep talents worth selecting will already be off the board or will have fallen due to signability. As Arizona lacks financial muscle in this year’s draft, avoiding that profile is a must. If all those other talents are off the board though, that means that there exists at least two or three college bats that have fallen. Arizona should look to those bats for their second pick. Then, they can start focusing on the role players they will select later.
For those wondering who this pundit wants Arizona to take, my choices would be Cunningham or Summerhill at #18. If they take Summerhill, Cunningham becomes my choice for #29 until he is taken off the board. It then becomes de Brun, Bauer, or Kilen. I am enamoured with the potential upside of Bauer. I have serious reservations that Arizona is able to unlock him though, especially given where his particular deficiencies are. Still, Justin Martinez shows that they are at least willing to try and develop that particular profile, so there might be something there.
The next time we check in will be when Arizona decides who will be their first pick in the draft. See you all tomorrow!