Diamondback Big Inning Comebacks
Let’s look at innings when the Diamondbacks started behind by at least 3 runs, and they scored at least 4 runs to take the lead. (Data pulled through the first 70 Diamondback games of this season.)
Game Context Matters.
The Third Game of the 2023 NLDS. The Diamondbacks were tied with the Dodgers so it was not a big inning comeback. However, four Diamondbacks (Perdomo, Marte, Walker, and Moreno) hit a home run in the third inning. If the 4 homers happened in the 7th or 8th inning, and if the Diamondbacks had been behind by 3 runs, then it would have been a big inning comeback (by our definition).
Wins with less than 1% Win Expectancy.
On 5 June, against the Braves, in the top of the ninth inning, the Diamondbacks were behind 4-10, with one out and no runners on base. Their win expectancy was less than one percent (0.08%). They scored 7 runs. After holding the Braves scoreless in the bottom of the ninth, the Diamondbacks won the game. Per Baseball Reference, that game was the 14th biggest comeback in baseball history. And it was this season’s biggest comeback win. That was a big inning comeback.
On 12 April, against the Brewers, in the bottom of the ninth inning, the Diamondbacks were behind 0-4, with one out and no runners on base. Their win expectancy was less than 1% (0.72%). They scored 5 runs for a walk-off win. Per Baseball Reference, that game was the 3rd biggest comeback this season. That was a big inning comeback.
This Season.
This season, in how many games did the Diamondbacks have a chance for a big inning comeback? This was estimated from Baseball Savant data: I counted 24 game dates when the Diamondbacks had at least one PA with the tying run on deck and at least 1 baserunner (meaning they were down at least 3 runs).
This season, the Diamondbacks had how many big inning comebacks? Six!
They made big inning comebacks in 6 out of 24 games when they had chances. They did it an incredible 25.0% of their games with chances. One reason that percentage is remarkable is the Clemens rule of thumb. Part of that rule is that in the ninth inning, when a team is down by 3 runs, they will win 2.5% of their games. With the caveat that we looked at games with chances for a big inning comeback (instead of ninth inning comebacks), the Diamondbacks (when down by at least 3 runs) had big inning comebacks in an incredible 25.0% of their games with chances. I’m confident that the Diamondbacks earned the moniker of “The Comeback Kids.”
The Clemens rule of thumb (presented in this FG article) quantified the winning chances for the underdog team at the start of the ninth inning:
behind 1 run, 15% chance to win.
behind 2 runs, 5% chance to win.
behind 3 runs, 2.5% chance to win.
In case you wondered, this season, despite the Diamondbacks’ pitching problems, opponents had only 3 big inning comebacks by our definition. The Comeback Kids had more big innings!
The big inning comeback games follow:
- Games on 12 April and 5 June were previously described in the section: Wins With Less Than 1% Win Expectancy.
- 14 June, against the Padres, in the bottom of the ninth inning, the Diamondbacks were behind 3-7. Their win expectancy was 1.5%. They scored 5 runs for a walk-off win. Per Baseball Reference, that game was the 7th biggest comeback this season. In addition, winning that game extended their win streak to 5 games.
- 30 March, against the Cubs, in the bottom of the eighth inning, the Diamondbacks were behind 2-6. Their win expectancy was 4%. They scored 8 runs for big inning comeback. After holding the Cubs scoreless in the top of the ninth, they won the game.
- 24 May, against the Cardinals, in the top of the eighth inning, the Diamondbacks were behind 1-4. Their win expectancy was 7%. They scored 4 runs for a big inning comeback. In the bottom of the eighth inning the Diamondbacks gave up 2 runs and lost the game.
- 18 April, the Cubs scored 5 runs in the bottom of the 7th inning to increase their lead to 6 runs. The score was Diamondbacks 1, Cubs 7. In the top of the eighth inning, the Diamondbacks scored 10 runs to take the lead, which was a big inning comeback. Sadly for the Diamondbacks, in the bottom of the eighth, the Cubs scored 6 runs to retake the lead. The Diamondbacks lost this game.
Summary.
The Diamondbacks’ four home runs in the third inning of game 3 in the 2023 NLDS series was remarkable, but it was not a comeback.
Big inning comebacks happen when the Diamondbacks start an inning behind by at least 3 runs, and they take the lead by the end of the inning.
This season against the Braves, the Diamondbacks had the 14th biggest comeback in baseball history.
They made big inning comebacks in 6 out of 24 games when they had chances. That is an incredible 25.0%!