How has so much gone wrong and what can be done to fix it?
Introduction
After last night’s nightmare loss to the lowly Pirates, the D-Backs find themselves the owners of a 27-29 record, which puts them seven games back of the division-leading Dodgers and five games back of the final Wild Card spot. Their playoff chances have fallen down to 23% according to Baseball Reference and the slightly more optimistic 34% according to FanGraphs. Jim posted an excellent wrap-up earlier today of what’s gone wrong this season as well as what can be done (if anything) to fix those issues. I’ve decided to focus on one specific part of the team that has significantly – and recently dramatically – harmed the team’s chances of returning to the postseason: the bullpen. This certainly isn’t something that’s gone unnoticed here at the Pit between Jim’s aforementioned wrap-up and this well-timed article on Mike Hazen’s seeming inability to construct a reliable bullpen.
So far this season, very little has gone right for a bullpen that was supposed to be better than it was last year. They have dealt with injuries to their two highest-leverage players in AJ Puk and Justin Martinez, Kendall Graveman, their biggest bullpen acquisition in the offseason has appeared in just six games, and many previous stalwarts have completely disintegrated. Based on wins above average, their -1.8 ranks them alongside such luminaries as the White Sox and Brewers in the bottom third of the major leagues. They have just four relievers currently on the active roster with an above average ERA+ in Scott McGough, Justin Martinez, Shelby Miller, and Jalen Beeks. So if it’s such a dire problem that it’s likely costing the team wins, what can be done about it?
Internal Options
Unfortunately, this is an additional area in which Hazen gets another deserved knock. He has struggled to develop pitching talent during his tenure. For each success story like Brandon Pfaadt – who is himself still going through growing pains – there are open questions like Tommy Henry or Drey Jameson. They’ve had just a handful of pitchers appear in the top-100 prospect list during Hazen’s leadership, most recently with Pfaadt back in 2023. That inability to draft and develop pitchers consistently means that the organization must instead rely on trades and more recently on the free agent market as Ken Kendrick has invested more heavily in the team over the past few seasons. But that strategy also has pitfalls: namely, the extreme volatility that relievers especially experience between seasons and sometimes even within seasons.
That’s not to say that the cupboard is completely bare within the organization as there are some intriguing options currently sitting in Reno that could provide some additional flexibility and a fresh arm. Namely, I would love to see a youngster like Christian Montes De Oca get a chance as he’s put together a solid season in Reno after a disappointing stop there last year with a 5.24 ERA compared to this year’s number of 2.45. He’s made positive strides in all of his peripherals too with his hits and walks allowed dipping while his strikeout rate has climbed. Admittedly, he’s still only 25 and has just 62 games at the uppermost level, but the D-Backs could use all the help they can get right now.
Trade Targets
As Jim pointed out, the bullpen is probably the area most easily addressed through the trade market. There are always relievers having decent-to-good seasons on teams that are neither of those things. This season is no different. I arbitrarily chose 10% or less of a playoff chance from FanGraphs to determine the teams and then cross-referenced that list with those relief pitchers that will be free agents next offseason. That process gave me three names that could be potential trade targets for the D-Backs: Kyle Finnegan from the Nationals, Brent Suter, and Taylor Rogers both from the Reds. Finnegan has been the source of trade rumors before as he was one of just two All-Star representatives from Washington last year with a solid 3.68 ERA and 1.335 WHIP. He’s actually been even better so far this season as he’s posted a 2.41 ERA and has yet to allow a home run in 19 games of work heading into free agency. Of course, he’s dealing with an ominous “shoulder fatigue” right now that will hurt his trade stock, but that won’t stop teams from at least sniffing around and inquiring about the Nationals’ asks. For both Suter and Rogers, the pair of lefty journeymen are hoping to forestall any regression to their peripherals as both veterans struggle to consistently keep runners off the basepaths. But even with some less-than-stellar background statistics, their 3.88 and 3.91 FIP respectively would still place them ahead of some of the few high-performers for the D-Backs. And given that the Reds have already traded Alexis Diaz on a flyer to the Dodgers, they might be more open to trading than before.
Ultimately, the team needs to make some changes if it hopes to stay within striking distance of a playoff spot. Recently, the offense has struggled – especially compared to some of the hot starts they had in the first month – but the pitching has been a sore spot for longer and is one that requires immediate attention from Hazen. There are certainly changes that could be made through promotion from within, changes in personnel usage, and of course external hires. Regardless, until some difficult choices are made by management, I have a difficult time envisioning how this team has the capability of making a push towards a playoff spot, let alone competing once they got there.