What did the latest prospect update tell us about Arizona player development?
Introduction
There’s something very peculiar about how we as fans approach big league prospects. They can range from the franchise-altering to the age-old questions of “busts” that can get assigned to players far too young. It’s also interesting to witness the entire cottage industry that has sprung up to evaluate and critique nearly everything about potential draftees and minor leaguers throughout their development. This industry has in turn helped fuel a level of excitement and speculation on prospects that I certainly don’t remember 10 or 15 years ago. Case in point, the team over at MLB Pipeline released their first “market correction” of the year this past week. As they explain it, these “corrections” occur when prospects are re-ranked slightly once others “graduate” upon losing their rookie eligibility/prospect status after exceeding 45 days of service time with the big league club. The team is very specific that it’s not a full re-ranking of the prospects as those only happen in the preseason and following the draft. But given the shakeup and the recent call up/season debut of the team’s number one prospect Jordan Lawlar, I thought it would be an appropriate time to take stock of where the D-Backs’ prospects have landed.
Jordan Lawlar – #11 to #4
Since peaking with six prospects in the Top 100 back in 2020, the Arizona farm system has flown under the radar for the most part since then while producing solid big leaguers who didn’t necessarily impress evaluators like Adrian Del Castillo. Those same evaluators have long been excited by the potential of Lawlar however, which was only exponentially increased when the Texan rocketed through four levels of minor league ball in his first full professional season. That momentum set him up well for the following season when he moved through the final two levels to get an uninspiring cup of coffee in the Show, while still demonstrating plenty of potential. He was unfortunately severely limited by injuries last year so it’s unsurprising that the team decided to slow roll his work this season as a result. Thankfully, he’s showing little to no ill effects from last year’s injuries and should hopefully be able to translate some of his minor league prowess to the big leagues while moving around the middle of the infield.
Slade Caldwell – Unranked to #99
One of two 2024-draftees on the list for the D-Backs, Caldwell just made his pro debut this year after a broken fibula last year kept him from fully participating in much after getting drafted. He’s already receiving favorable comparisons to one of our favorite MVP-candidates – Corbin Carroll – because of his relatively slight frame and middling arm strength from the outfield. So far, the comparison seems relatively apt as the Arkansas native has an OBP approaching .500 as he’s averaging a walk per game and using his above-average speed to steal bases, score runs, and cover absurd amounts of outfield grass. That kind of combination plays nicely at the big league level as Carroll can attest. At the moment, he’s projected out as a possible centerfielder, but his age-19 season is still too early to make anything but an educated guess.
Druw Jones – #78 to Unranked
It stings a bit to watch Jones’ stock drop since his drafting back in 2022 from 15th in 2023 to 78th last year, to being left off the list entirely so far this season. He’s been hampered by any number of ailments (shoulder, quad, and hamstring), but managed to be healthy for most of 2024 and demonstrated some of the skills that got him drafted second-overall three years ago. This year, after repeating single-A, the team decided to start him one level up with Hillsboro where his power has completely dried up even as the rest of his offensive stats are relatively stable. Through his first 34 games of the season, Jones has just five extra base hits (all doubles), a problem with his swing mechanics that leaves him prone to grounders rather than an ability to elevate the ball. Additionally, he’s had a difficult time finding the right level of aggressiveness at the plate as his swing rate (38%) would have ranked near the bottom of the majors. That’s a perfectly fine strategy if you have the kind of batting eye Juan Soto does – the only player with a lower swing rate in the majors – but Jones is averaging over a strikeout a game and has double the number of strikeouts than walks so that doesn’t necessarily seem to be the case. Even still, the Vanderbilt recruit is just entering his age-21 season and still has plenty of time to make the necessary adjustments to access the kind of potential the D-Backs saw in him just three years ago.