What’s the case for Tawa winning NL rookie of the year?
Introduction
When Tim Tawa was first called up on April 4th for his MLB debut after Ketel Marte’s injury, my expectations were honestly somewhat muted. He had certainly paid his dues in the minor leagues after 420 combined games across all levels and shown he had little to learn at AAA with a .317/.388/.665 slash line in 43 games across two seasons there. But even those kinds of results were only enough to get Tawa into the “dark horse” category and Rule-5 protection in the offseason. It wasn’t enough to move Tawa up in the prospect rankings either as he failed to crack the team’s top-30 ranking since he was drafted back in 2021 in the 11th round out of Stanford. I’ll admit though that I’m a sucker for players who don’t have the kind of prospect pedigree that others arrive with as I think it can free the players up for more success outside of the media attention and subsequent high expectations. So when Tawa survived the roster crunch after Marte’s return from the IL and continued to thrive, I thought he might have a chance to stick around even longer. But it wasn’t until the recent Atlanta series that I began to dream on the possibility of Tawa winning the rookie of the year award and what it might take for that to happen.
Competition
At the moment, it looks like Atlanta’s Drake Baldwin and Milwaukee’s Chad Patrick are the two frontrunners for raising the NL’s Jackie Robinson Award this offseason. It’s also not hard to see the case for either player. Baldwin has been one of the few bright spots on a disappointing Atlanta club and has posted a solid .295/.345/.485 slash line so far this season. He’s also been excellent behind the dish with a 20% caught stealing rate and holds a 74th Statcast percentile for framing. Unsurprisingly, those results combine for a rookie-leading 1.5 fWAR for position players and a rookie-leading 131 OPS+ for qualifying hitters. Meanwhile, Patrick has been the only consistent starter for the Brewers outside of Freddy Peralta, making a team-high tying 14 starts and racking up a rookie-leading 71 strikeouts this season. There are some warning signs underneath the topline numbers with some disagreement between actual and expected ERA (3.25 and 3.78 respectively), but he’s been limiting baserunners and striking batters out at a prodigious rate to maintain a solid 1.26 WHIP. Those numbers put Patrick atop the rookie pitchers pile with a 1.7 fWAR while holding a nearly 2-to-1 innings pitched lead over his competition.
Tawa’s Case
Frankly, Tawa will likely need to recapture the form he demonstrated through the first two weeks of his debut when he slashed .233/.358/.558 across his first 15 big league games. More importantly, he’ll need to find his way to get more starts than he’s gotten recently. Since Marte returned from the IL on May 2nd, he’s only been in the starting lineup 13 times, but has gotten used in nearly every other combination: late-inning defensive substitution, high-leverage pinch hitting, and even as a pinch runner. If he can find some additional opportunities for starts, it might improve both his rhythm and confidence in his abilities. His biggest advantage by far however is his willingness and ability to play literally all over the field. He has made an official appearance at every infield position besides shortstop and catcher, demonstrating the kind of raw athletic ability that made him such a successful two-sport athlete. That kind of positional flexibility should theoretically increase his availability, but that theory hasn’t quite borne out that way to this point.
Regardless, I suspect Tawa will stay up with the big league club through the rest of the season unless he completely loses his touch or is injured himself. For the team, even a small chance of winning a prospect promotion incentive (PPI) likely outweighs the possible benefit of returning him to Reno as he has little to learn there at this point. In order to qualify for a PPI, the Oregon native would need to finish out the season at the big league level. If he’s able to receive some votes, it bodes well for the team as it likely means that they will at least still be in playoff contention down the stretch.