What might a trade look like?
Inspiration.
November of 2022 was my latest article about why the Diamondbacks should acquire a specific relief pitcher. It was David Bednar. The idea aged well enough to encourage an encore article about possible treades for relievers.
This season, what might a trade for relievers look like?
Background: The wild card race hangs in the balance.
In mid-July, if the Diamondbacks are contending for a wild card, my view is they will likely trade for closer. Or, they may trade for a reliever.
On 18 June, the seven teams in contention for the three NL wild card berths are the Diamondbacks, the Reds, the Cardinals, the Brewers, the Padres, the Giants, and the Phillies (assumed the Mets will win NL East).
- Of the seven teams, the Diamondbacks had the lowest percentage of saves per opportunity (61% in games through 18 June).
- Of the seven teams, the Diamondbacks and the Reds had the worst records in 1-run games (when great relievers can sometimes make a huge impact).
- Of the seven teams, the Diamondbacks had the highest runs allowed (371).
The quandry: add a closer, add a reliever, or add both?
An interesting trade concept would be for the Diamondbacks to acquire an awesome closer (the central part of a trade) and an average reliever under team control in future seasons (the side part of a trade). Having two parts would better balance current and future seasons).
Why acquire an average reliever for future seasons? The Diamondbacks offense is so awesome, that league average pitching is likely all it will take to reach the playoffs. Also, sometimes an average reliever finds a way to be an excellent reliever (creating surplus value in the trade).
The central part of the trade is acquire a closer.
Let’s look at a few outstanding closers who pitch for teams with losing records.
David Bednar, Pirates. After my recommendation, he had an excellent 2023 season. After a disappointing 2024 season, he bounced back strongly. Three stats (0.7 HR9, 12.6 SO9, and 2.5 BB9) are all on track for a career best season. I love his .145 whiffs per pitch. His Got-The-Job-Done (no ERs and no inherited runners score) is 76%.
In 2023, he was nominated for the Roberto Clemente award. He partnered with a local beer company who provides free beer to the clubhouse.
Jhoan Duran, Twins. His four-seam fastball averaged over 100 MPH in each of the last four seasons. This season he has faced 137 batters; he did not allow a home run. His 1.64 ERA and 82% GTJD are impressive.
Felix Bautista, Orioles. He missed last season because of Tommy John surgery. This season, his sinker’s average velocity fell from 99.5 MPH (2023) to 97.2 MPH. Nevertheless, his 2.81 ERA and 3.41 FIP are excellent. His GTJD is 77%.
Mason Miller, Athletics. He is successful despite his type 1 diabetes. His 5.20 ERA is a career worst, perhaps driven by a 1.3 HR9. On the optimistic side, his 3.24 FIP and 78% GTJD look great.
Kyle Finnegan, Nationals. After two seasons (2023 and 2024) of allowing too many hard hits (47.5% and 48.1%), this season’s 40.2% hard hits supported an improved ERA and FIP. His GTJD is 63%.
The side part of the trade is acquire an average reliever.
Let’s look at relievers who pitch for teams with significantly losing records. On those teams, there were 17 relievers with OBP, SLG, and wOBA, all within 10% of league average for relievers.
In general, the relievers who have pitched best for the Diamondbacks had an average fastball velocity of at least 94 MPH (see graph in this AZ Snake Pit article). Again, staying with the idea of an average reliever, eight of the 17 relievers had an average fastball velocity between 93.1 and 94.9 MPH. Those relievers were my focus because they were most average.
Three of the eight will be free agents in 2026, so their value would only accrue this season. They were Ryan Borachi, Jorge Lopez, and Charlie Morton.
Jorge Lopez (Nationals) could be a bête noire, striking fear in batters who might face him because he ranked 42nd in career HBPs. In June of last season, after being ejected from the game, he showed his displeasure by throwing his glove over the netting into the stands. This season, perhaps he has more control over his emotional responses.
Ryan Borucki pitches for the Pirates. He is bouncing back from a disppointing 2024. On 19 June he injured his lower back and is now on the IL. Because he is on the IL, I chose Chase Shugart in his place. Because his 4-seam fastball has a higher velocity (95.5 MPH), unlike the others he may be slightly above average. Also, he has value beyond this season.
Six relievers with value beyond this season. They pitch for the Nationals, the Orioles, the Twins, the Athletics, and the Pirates. They have upside potential that, if realized, would provide the Diamondbacks with surplus value.
Cole Henry, Nationals. This season, His 4-seam fastball and curveball have high whiff rates (36.6% and 31.4%). This season (his first in the Majors), his 7 HBPs ranked him 3rd in the NL (18 June). Prior to the 2023 season he had thoracic outlet surgery.
Brad Lord, Nationals. He could be a long reliever. This season he started 6 games (average 4.4 innings) and was a reliever in 20 games. This season (his first in the Majors) his 5 double plays as pitcher ranked him 1st in the NL.
Joey Wentz, Twins. In June, the Twins selected him off waivers from the Pirates. This season, his 47.4% hard-hit rate is on track for a career worst. My view is that it is fixable.
Mitch Spence, Athletics. The Athletics acquired him by a rule 5 pick. This season, his slider has a 39.7% whiff rate.
Keegan Akin, Orioles. His 73.5% GTJD is excellent. His results have slipped from last season, which was his career best season. My view is he could bounce back.
Chase Shugart, Pirates. Despite his better than average velocity, this season his K% fell from 22.2% to 15.9%. His 78% GTJD is excellent
Summary.
An interesting trade concept would be for the Diamondbacks to acquire an awesome closer and an average reliever under team control in future seasons. Those two parts would better balance current and future seasons. Potential trade targets follow:
- Pirates. Closer David Bednar, and average reliever Chase Shugart.
- Twins. Closer Jhoan Duran, and average reliever Joey Wentz.
- Orioles. Closer Felix Bautista, and average reliever Keegan Akin.
- Athletics. Closer Mason Miller, and average reliever Mitch Spence.
- Nationals. Closer Kyle Finnegan, and average reliever Brad Lord or Cole Henry.