Too soon? Maybe not…
20 games in, and we are beginning to see teams sort themselves out in the National League West. The Dodgers jumped out to take first place after winning their opener against the Padres in Seoul, and have not been out of pole position since. Meanwhile, the Rockies got off to a good start in defense of their title as the National League’s worst team, though so far they are facing a stiff challenge from Miami. In between, the Padres, D-backs and Giants are all there or thereabouts, with not a great deal to separate them. It’s all very much as expected in the division. This shouldn’t be a surprise. Last year, we found that after just 20 games in 2022, two-thirds of the eventual postseason teams were already in playoff spots.
Did the same thing happen in 2023? Yes: once again, eight of the twelve teams to reach the postseason, were in the top six of their league with not much more than 10% of the season in the books. If we look at the standings after Arizona’s twentieth game on April 20, in the American League we find the top six included the Rays, Rangers, Orioles, Blue Jays and Twins. The only difference? The 12-7 Yankees missed out, being replaced by the 9-10 Astros. The National League was more volatile: while the Braves, Brewers and D-backs were in the top six, so were the Mets, Pirates and Cubs, who ended up losing out to the Dodgers, Phillies and Marlins. But still: a 67% hit-rate this early is impressive.
We also noted that of the 12 teams to make the playoffs in 2022, only half of them returned the following year. We aren’t far off that being true in mid-April. If the season was to end right now, the American League postseason field would be absent the Astros, Twins and Blue Jays. The first two, in particular, are off to a terrible start. In the live-ball era, only two teams have made the post-season after going worse than 7-13 in the first twenty: the 1981 Royals and 2002 Angels. The old saw about “You can’t win the pennant in April, but you can lose it,” may well apply to both Houston and Minnesota. In the NL, it’s the D-backs and Marlins currently on the outside, and for the latter, at 4-15, it’s already over.
For the D-backs, I’m a little less concerned, although there is clearly a lot of room for the team to play better, especially in certain departments and by some individuals. After being quite lucky with injuries in 2023, that has regressed sharply to start this season. Arizona have yet to see a single pitch from 40% of their expected starting rotation (Eduardo Rodriguez and Jordan Montgomery) or their closer (Paul Sewald), while the Diamondbacks have largely missed their starting shortstop (Geraldo Perdomo) and center fielder (Alek Thomas), who have 41 PA between them. The former in particular has hurt, with Jace Peterson having almost as many PA as Perdomo.
For now, I would happy to see the team keep at or around .500 baseball, while they wait to get healthy. The return of Montgomery tonight should help, and hopefully that will have a knock-on effect in terms of reducing the bullpen’s workload. The Diamondbacks have been averaging 3.8 relief innings per game, which is about average. But it feels more of late, between the two extra innings contests against the Cubs, and then the unexpected early exit of our starter last night. But let’s take a look at where Arizona stands around the four main aspects of baseball, twenty games into the season.
Hitting
By the most basic metric – runs per game – the Diamondbacks are doing well. They have been averaging 5.30 runs, which is the sixth-best mark in the majors. However, that is skewed by the 14-run inning against the Rockies on Opening Day. If we exclude that as an aberration, then the average drops down to not much above league average (4.46). That would be in line with their output generally. The D-backs’ OPS+ currently sits at 102, a slight improvement on last year, when the figure was 98. Ketel Marte, Joc Pederson and Lourdes Gurriel have bee the standouts, while Eugenio Suarez and Corbin Carroll have not performed up to expectations.
One area where there has definitely been a drop-off is on the base-paths. Last year, Arizona is currently on pace to steal 122 bases, which would be 44 fewer than last year. Their success rate so far is also down sharply, from 86% to 71%, which is at the level where it’s a net loss to the offense [Christian Walker in particular: he was 11-0 last year, but is 0-2 in 2024]. They have also been less aggressive in terms of taking an extra base, that figure dropping to 44% from 46% last year. However, the D-backs have still been better than average at converting base-runners into runs. 36% of the men on base for Arizona have eventually scored, ranking sixth in the majors – league average is 32%.
Defense
This might be the most obvious difference. I think fans were spoiled last year by the basic defensive competence of the Diamondbacks. They made only 56 errors, barely one every three games, the fewest in the majors. That hasn’t been the case in 2024. They have 16 errors so far, most in the National League, and leading to a dozen unearned runs. The struggles of Blaze Alexander have been well-noted, with he and Suarez each committing three. But after playing 779 error-free innings last season, Gurriell has already been charged with two errors. Their overall defensive efficiency is down too. They’ve converted 67.4% of balls in play to outs, which ranks 26th in the majors; last year, their 69.5% ranked 13th.
If we look at more advanced metrics (with the caveat that small sample size still very much applies to these), things aren’t quite so bad. Arizona as a whole comes in at -1, both by Outs Above Average, and Statcast’s Fielding Runs Value, with Fangraphs’s Def metric almost exactly there as well (-0.9). But that’s still a dramatic reversal from last year, when the same figures for the whole season were +30, +28 and +28.6. So far, their defense has gone from among the best in the major leagues to somewhere below average. If you’ve watched much Diamondbacks baseball this year, that will not be a surprise, the team occasionally verging on Little League levels of competence.
Starting pitching
All told, the D-backs’ rotation has been better than average this year, whether by ERA (3.97 = 13th), FIP (3.71 = 7th) or fWAR (1.5 = 10th). But as has previously been noted, this conceals a wide split between the top and bottom of the starting pitching. Here are the ERAs of our five starters, now we have completed four turns around the rotation:
- Zac Gallen: 1.64
- Merrill Kelly: 2.19
- Ryne Nelson: 4.60
- Brandon Pfaadt: 5.32
- Tommy Henry: 6.87
Henry will not be troubling opposing hitters any further – not that he was much to begin with – his spot having been given to Jordan Montgomery. That should represent a significant improvement, Fangraphs projecting Jordan to post a 3.87 ERA going forward. Switching that in for Henry is obviously going to help. Hopefully, the elbow contusion Nelson suffered last night, proves not to be a serious issue. Logan Allen did look decent in long relief last night, but the long-term track record there is questionable.
Relief pitching
If you’d told me on Opening Day the bullpen would have a 4.11 ERA, ranked almost exactly mid-MLB, I’d have taken it. After all, in April 2023, Arizona’s relievers had a 4.56 ERA, so are clearly better, right? Not if you look at social media, where certain accounts kneejerk “Ladies and gentlemen: the bullpn” [sic] memes, even if they are far from the main problem. To some extent, I understand the angst. Seven of the eleven losses are on the bullpen, and the number of Arizona “meltdowns” – relief appearances worth worse than -6% of Win Probability – at 18, trails only the Marlins (20). Scott McGough has four, Kevin Ginkel and the late, unlamented Luis Frias – now on the Reno IL – each have three meltdowns.
As I mentioned previously, it’s less how many runs they’ve allowed, than when they’ve done so. They have effectively been “anti-clutch”. Since I’m not convinced about the existence of clutch as a significant factor generally (in hitting or pitching), I can’t honestly commit to it as a factor here, especially over a sample size of 76.2 innings. Getting rid of Frias, who has been the worst offender by far, worth -91% Win Probability, is a good thing, and I suspect the bullpen will settle down, the results coming more into line with overall performance. Pretty sure they won’t end with 56 losses, as the current pace projects. There will still be bad games, to be sure. But newsflash: every bullpen has them.
Conclusions
It’s hard to look at the Diamondbacks right now and come to anything definitive. It’s a disappointing start for the reigning NL Champions, and there’s a lot of room for improvement, certainly. Some of that is simply “Play better.” But some of it is also “Get healthy,” and the D-backs team we currently have is likely to be quite different from the one we see at the All-Star break. 20% of the expected roster isn’t there right now, and that’s going to impact any team across the board. I would rather wait for at least another 20 games, to get a better handle on the team, and am not going to jump to conclusions right now, in terms of demanding changes,
Except for Jace Peterson, anyway. 🙂