“It gets late early out there,” to quote (who else?) Yogi Berra
The Diamondbacks have been doing a lot better of late. The 2024 season hopefully reached its low point with the 13-1 shellacking by the Padres at Chase Field on May 4, a defeat which saw the team drop to a record of 14-20. It saw their Fangraphs playoff odds drop below one in four for the first time this year, sinking to 24.3%. That probably felt optimistic, considering after the loss, Arizona were ahead only of the Marlins and Rockies in the overall National League standings. But since that crushing defeat, the D-backs are 7-3, a record trailing only the Phillies in the NL.
Now, any new-found optimism needs to be tempered. Five of those seven wins came against the Reds, who are not very good (right now, they are in the spot we were, ahead only of Florida and Colorado). While our Fangraphs odds have recovered, Arizona still sits at only 37.6%. But yesterday’s hard-Pfaadt victory, combined with losses by the Nationals and Padres, mean that if the season ended today, the D-backs would effectively be in a tie with Washington and San Diego for the third wild-card spot in the National League, even though all three teams sit two games below .500. I got a little bit of pushback on Twitter when I posted that:
OMG, it’s May, who gives a shit
— HD11 (@Mjhodge11) May 16, 2024
But smarter readers will know, we’ve looked at the situation before and found that the standings stabilize a long way before the end of the season. Even as early as just twenty games into the schedule, a clear majority of the teams that are in playoff spots at that point, will find themselves playing in the post-season five months later. The deeper we get into the calendar, the stronger the correlation becomes. As further proof of that, here are the standings at the end of play on May 15th last year. I’ve put the teams that ended up reaching the post-season in bold italics.
Even I was surprised by the results. Of the twelve teams to reach the post-season last year, eleven were tied for a playoff spot or better as early as mid-May. The sole exception were the Houston Astros, who made the post-season at the expense of the New York Yankees. Even the Astros were just half a game back of the last wild-card spot in the American League. Of course, there was some shuffling of positions over the remaining three-quarters of the season: the Rangers did not quite end up winning the AL West. But as last year showed, with two wild-card teams ending up in the World Series, it’s getting to the dance and how you perform there that matters.
It won’t be 100% accurate. Right now there are three teams effectively tied for the last NL wild-card spot, and three into one won’t go. So, at least two of the eight teams currently “in playoff position” are going to fall short. But I’m hopeful it won’t be the D-backs, because this team has already been decimated by injuries. 40% of the expected rotation is out, plus their starting shortstop and center fielder, the Arizona closer has thrown precisely four innings, and half the Opening Day bullpen is no longer there. Given this, that the Diamondbacks are still very much in competition is kinda impressive. I feel they will get stronger, almost by default, as players return to the roster.
But just for fun, I thought it might be interesting to see if this theory of early standings stability can be turned into a profitable exercise. You can place wagers on whether or not a specific team will make the post-season, so I’m betting a theoretical $100 on each of the thirty teams. For those fourteen teams (6 AL, 8 NL) currently in or tied for a play-off position, I’m placing a bet they WILL make the post-season. For the other sixteen, I’ll wager they will MISS the playoffs. I’m using the odds found on this page, which are from the three main sports books: FanDuel, Bet MGM and Draft Kings, and have taken the best i.e. most bettor friendly odds for each team.
This seems fair, because at FanDuel the Dodgers are currently -100000 to make the playoffs. In other words, if you bet a hundred bucks on them, you would make… a dime in profit. Yes: ten cents. Going with Bet MGM would give you ten times as much. Okay, still only a buck, such is the near-certainty of a Dodger post-season. But I, for one, would not have it any other way: the annual elimination of Los Angeles in the playoffs is always a pleasure. Anyway, the chart below shows the current standings, odds and amount to be won if I get my bet right. The teams shown in bold are the ones I’m betting on to reach the 2024 post-season, the others I’m betting they won’t.
If the Nationals make it – currently at odds of 28-1 – that will cover almost the entire cost of this theoretical exercise, and they actually have longer odds than the Athletics (25-1) to reach the post-season. The Padres, Royals and D-backs reaching the playoffs are the others which represent the biggest upside. Given the injury situation discussed above, I’m less optimistic about the first pair than the last-named, though of course, that may just be my fandom talking. But we’ll revisit this at the end of the season, and see if my winning bets tally up to more than the total of three thousand dollars wagered.
Which of the above bets seem like good (or bad!) value?