In an alternate, happier reality, this recap would be about the D-Backs sweeping – or at the very least winning the series – against a middling Cardinals team. Alas, that reality – where I’m sure dogs live forever and the Yankees consistently go 0-162 every season – is not the one in which we reside. Instead, we live in the reality where our favorite baseball team seems to be stuck in proverbial neutral through the early parts of the season. Every time it looks as if the team is ready to take a step forward, the same issues arise: lack of late inning offense, defensive miscues, and iffy bullpen work. I am firmly in the camp that “momentum” is a myth in baseball, but I’m equally convinced that trends are difficult to escape once they are established – and the trends we are seeing early are not positive ones.
Following a heartbreaking defeat in the first game and an absolutely textbook 14-1 dismantling of the Cardinals in the game last night, the D-Backs were primed to take the rubber match and the series. The first inning could not have started more promisingly either as the D-Backs loaded the bases on a bloop single, a sharp line drive single, and a hit by pitch from Pavin Smith, Blaze Alexander, and Joc Pederson respectively. It was as golden a scoring opportunity in the first inning as you could possibly expect, but the D-Backs would only come away with a single run. After Pederson’s HBP, Christian Walker stroked the ball to one of the deepest parts of the park, but not quite enough for a grand slam and instead a 394 foot sacrifice fly for a 1-0 D-Backs lead. It would prove to be the only Arizona run in the game as Eugenio Suarez promptly served up a picture perfect inning-ending double play ball to Nolan Gorman.
Still, a one-run lead for new D-Backs rotational member Jordan Montgomery is certainly better than no lead whatsoever. And boy howdy did Monty cruise through most of the afternoon: he allowed a baserunner in five of his seven IP, but bore down in every instance to hold up that flimsy lead. That is, he held firm until the home half of the sixth when he consecutively allowed a single, double, and RBI single to Brendan Donovan, Willson Contreras, and Nolan Arenado respectively to knot the score at 1-1. Frustratingly, Montgomery quickly uncorked a changeup that backup catcher Tucker Barnhart could not collect and which traveled far enough for Contreras to scamper home for a 2-1 Cardinals lead.
The veteran lefty would reenter in the seventh and quickly retired the leadoff batter before running into trouble again. Masyn Winn smacked a middle-middle sinker to Alexander who couldn’t quite beat out Winn’s excellent 83rd percentile sprint speed. The official scorer ruled it an error, but the play seems like an excellent candidate to be overturned down the road. Regardless, Winn’s speed was almost immediately put on display again as the Cardinals perfectly executed a hit-and-run as Nolan Gorman tattooed another sinker into the left-center gap to extend their lead 3-1. The Cardinals would put the finishing touches in the home half of the eighth when Bryce Jarvis – one of the early breakout stars of the Arizona bullpen – loaded the bases with one out on an Arenado walk, Paul Goldschmidt single, and Pedro Pages walk. Torey Lovullo had seen enough and lifted Jarvis in favor of Andrew Saalfrank who immediately served up yet another sinker that Lars Nootbaar nearly deposited into the bullpen that scored Arenado and Goldy for a seemingly unreachable 5-1 Cards’ lead.
If you’re wondering why the D-Backs’ offense has been notably absent from this recap, it’s because the bats went quiet in seemingly every high leverage situation. They managed to end the game with an unsightly 0-for-8 mark with runners in scoring position and left a full seven baserunners on the base paths. Outside of the aforementioned double play ball in the first inning, there were scoring opportunities in just three out of the next eight innings. As Steve Berthiaume remarked, it’s part of a larger “feast or famine” style offense the D-Backs have exhibited in the early going. The team already has four games where they’ve scored double digit runs and nine games where they’ve scored three or fewer runs including today. For context, the 2023 D-Backs had just 10 games of the former in the entire season.
Returning to our alternate universe from the top of the piece – where calories don’t count and we’ve cured the common cold – we could just as easily be talking about an NL West-leading D-Backs. Their expected record (by Pythagorean winning percentage) is 16-10. That mark is the second-best expected record in the majors – trailing only the Cleveland Guardians’ 17-6. Even worse, if that mark were the D-Backs’ actual record, they would not only be leading the division, but they would have the best record in the National League. There are plenty of reasonable arguments for why that 16-10 record might be inflated or inaccurate – especially this early in the season. But the discrepancy between the actual and expected records is frustrating for the players and fans alike. There are plenty of theories on what’s keeping the team from finding their next gear and even more possible culprits. It’s still early and I have no doubt in the team’s skill level or effort, but they’ll need to figure it out quickly if they want to stay in contention long term.